Thats all correct Kotaredrew, And I feel for shareholders who have lost money when management's plan to mine Granville came to naught. These developments are also however, in the past.
If, as you say, the SOI goes to 13-15b, at $0.001 then the market capitalisation will be $13-$15m. And yes, there is risk that following consolidation the market capitalisation could fall due to the removal of the floor to the SP. We all know that.
But the price of tin and copper have has also almost doubled in a year whilst the silver price has more than doubled.
Despite what has occurred in the past and the negativity that previous investors hold towards ANW, the metal price movements still have an impact on underlying value in the present and are likely to continue to have an improved impact on underlying value into the future.
If losses have been made previously, they are (unfortunately for some) sunk costs. I don't say that to rub it in, but it is a reflection of the reality in an investment environment where everyone's goal is to make money based on decisions made on present and future conditions - not past.
We have all been in the situation where we have held a stock, suffered disappointment, sold the stock only to watch the SP rise again as a result of change to the macro environment in which the stock operates. It's unfortunate and it happens.
In the case of ANW, in the current metal price environment, the known Taronga 2012 JORC resource alone seems like a bargain if it were to be transacted at $13-$15m. That price includes your assumption that additional shares will be issued into the future - not the current market capitalisation. In addition, there is alot of prospectivity in ANWs tenements and ANW now also has cash on their balance sheet following the $2m placement and the filling of the shortfall placement last month.
The market capitalisation now is $10m. It remains to be seen how the injected cash will be deployed but even if management continue to stuff it up (which based on previous performance is a possibility), if ANW were to be completely sold or taken over by another group I highly doubt the transaction would occur at levels significantly below current market capitalisation levels.
And who knows, new activist investors or a new CEO may pull off a turn-around which might actually result in ANW realising it's potential. Or maybe management may finally have a light-bulb moment where they actually realise that they do actually have an obligation to improve shareholder value. It certainly remains to be seen.
But the fact is that in the present environment the risk / reward potential of ANW is very good currently, and that reality means that ANW is a buy!
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Mkt cap ! $2.268M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
1.2¢ | 1.2¢ | 1.2¢ | $7.238K | 603.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 1019900 | 1.1¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.3¢ | 6163 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 1019900 | 0.011 |
3 | 632170 | 0.010 |
2 | 1186222 | 0.009 |
2 | 362500 | 0.008 |
1 | 450000 | 0.007 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.013 | 6163 | 1 |
0.015 | 301800 | 2 |
0.016 | 30000 | 1 |
0.018 | 87764 | 2 |
0.020 | 344801 | 2 |
Last trade - 10.42am 28/03/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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