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  1. nickoo

    1,816 Posts.

    It is always hard to back your own judgement when you're so young-I'm in my early 20's.

    I have read alot about market cycles, past crashes, bear markets, and the leveraged nature 'the ticking time bomb' of our economy, yet have never experienced a mega bear market of market crash in this lifetime.

    My personal beliefs of what would happen in global markets over the last two years was thus always full of a lack of ultimate conviction.

    I was mega bearish- yet i didn't back my judgement in a BIG way with $$$... to my dismay.

    I have been a major bull on gold, and have backed it with big $$$- thankfully! ... yet, i havn't bought puts on stocks i know i should have.

    CSL at $45- i was a mega bear on CSL at this level- publically on HC, yet i didn't act.

    NCP at $16- again a case of me not acting on my own public advice.


    Well, as of last week, i've got some puts in BIL (Brambles). My long term target on Brambles is below $5.00.

    I'm focused on a couple of other stocks that are grossly over valued, but am holding out for a possible market wide bear market rally some time in the near future... (a break below 8,000 to the 7,500 level, could result in a bear market rally to 8,000 to confirm resistance at this level, and provide a solid setup for much lower levels).


    In the long term , however, i see the US markets going MUCh lower.

    Property MAY go through a speculative phase over the next 12 months, with refugees from the share market flocking to the "safe haven" of property.

    Sadly, these investors will face an even worse faith in the property markets when that bubble pops within the next 18 months- which it will.


    The greatest worry for us all is the faith of those in their late 50's, early 60's who were hoping to retire this decade, or early next.

    Boy o' boy, are they in for one hell of a suprise.

    All the models that their 'genius' financial advisers have based their retiring income stream on are on the assumption of 10-12% returns from the equity markets over the next decade.

    What happens when reality hits, and these individuals realise that they've been duded, and that they'll be suffering -15% (negative!) returns over the next decade??

    A person expected to retire on $500,000 in 2010 could possibly end up with $150,000 in 2010 if they remain fully invested in equities going forward.

    What happens to these individuals?

    Do they get government relief, or go on the aged pension?

    Where's the government going to get the funding for this type of welfare??

    We're going to get taxed to out eyeballs going forward- FACT.


    ... just some random thoughts!

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