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Seasonality

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    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 365
    Here's an illustration of RCL's seasonality.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2332/2332278-d41b5f596e9faf9555e89dd0d57d4352.jpg

    The recent revenue number is until May, not June. The most recent receipts number also uses my estimate for this quarter. But otherwise, it's my historical data.

    So receipts seems to fall below revenue for July-Dec, then rise above revenue in Jan-June.

    Then the receipts versus rolling 4 periods receipts -
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2332/2332284-13bd8984b6010ec80b11527c3cc9a416.jpg

    Receipts is bouncy, but rolling 4 periods receipts is looking like a fairly stable uptrend.

    And with my assumption for the coming quarterly receipts -

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2332/2332286-ef9a56ccd2dfedc83a7850edcaa70065.jpg

    Any amount of user growth, school numbers growth, revenue growth in the quarterly will be good. Though we're already aware up until May.

    Here's users and schools over time. I inferred some numbers that I didn't find in old announcements.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2332/2332310-fb32d0242c4cb7bd5595d7b7e8e7b8d0.jpg


    The recent presentation said "7 new direct schools have been signed up over the last two months via video conferencing" which sounds ok. And I think the previous fast growth was because of the AIET acquisition. Now is more like organic growth.

    ~30-40% growth in schools and students over the past year. Can't complain. If it keeps up - good.
 
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