There are no reasonable grounds to simply extrapolate the recent...

  1. 10,502 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 196
    There are no reasonable grounds to simply extrapolate the recent past trend. All science studies indicate we can expect this to accelerate. If we carried on at the historic rate we'd have something like 15 cm higher sea level in 2100, not the 0.5-1m predicted. And even that recent historic rate is related to agricultural development, deforestation and early industrialisation. Prior to that the rate of change was negligable. As your own chart showed.
    "Recently, it has become widely accepted that late Holocene, 3,000 calendar years ago to present, sea level was nearly stable prior to an acceleration of rate of rise that is variously dated between 1850 and 1900 AD. Late Holocene rates of sea level rise have been estimated using evidence from archaeological sites and late Holocene tidal marsh sediments, combined with tide gauge and satellite records and geophysical modeling. For example, this research included studies of Roman wells in Caesarea and of Roman piscinae in Italy. These methods in combination suggest a mean eustatic component of 0.07 mm/yr for the last 2000 years"
    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/se...hable-from-noise.4131112/reply?quote=32512017

    We've started an accelerating trend, the impacts of which we have only just started to see.

    And again you ignore all the other effects of climate change.

    Every study shows it is vastly better economically to curtail emissions rather than to keep our heads in the sand and wear the worst case outcome of business as usual. Malthus may have been premature, but it is very clear now that we are affecting the climate we depend on, to an extent that is dangerous without mitigation. I am reasonably confident that science, as before, will find solutions. But those solutions involve replacing fossil fuel use with sustainable forms of energy.
    Last edited by mjp2: 18/04/18
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.