CBZ 0.00% 5.2¢ cbio limited

risk v reward on xtoll results due

  1. 1,041 Posts.
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    Hi,

    Just thought I'd open up a discussion here with how I view the risk V reward with results due imminently & like to hear others views (though I think we made up our minds!).

    Newbies can read about this drug on the front page of www.cbio.com.au so I won't go into what it is for but in working out a possible price I need to mention there were 2 scientists who spent 20 years of research on it before CBIO formed to continually raise funding for the last 10 years from 2001 so basically it has 30 years behind it.

    Now, don't actually know what value they place on the 20 years of research but approx 40 million (I have to recheck that so don't quote me yet) has been raised & spent over the last 10 years. 160 million+ shares will be on issue (extra when $1 is triggered) Suppose it depends on what a global company sees is the cost of getting a drug to market & how much it can sell it for & to how many people?

    Price is now 68c - if the results are as good for the RA as they have always shown to be (& I have actually met patients first hand that have shown me what it did for them) then this should at least be $1 so up 50% & then escalate from there as Nova Nordisk has a 60 day option for first right of refusal to take it through next phase & to commercialisation but any offer has to be agreed upon by all shareholders (most I've talked to say they won't accept less than $5+ share plus a royalty stream & some are sticking to the $50 from the dream AGM 5 years ago?)
    The results will also be sent out to all the big Pharmas too so that the company is not seen to be favouring NN.

    Now, if the results are somehow not as good or opaque & need a trial rerun they also have the other options as in Lupus etc trials as a backup so I see worst case scenario as back to 44c where they just raised some capital via sophisticated investors so maybe a 30% drop though cannot see how they can't be good when many patients in the first 5 years of trials showed recovery with little side effects?

    Anyway, I see the odds as 85% chance this share will be over $1 & as far up as $5 if the team head off to Europe to sign papers & a 15% chance that it will go down.
    What do others work out as their risk ratio?

    Last week at the AGM words were to buy more at 68c because this week or next it could be $1+ so couldn't understand why so many people were selling out yesterday unless they were the 44c 'sophisticated' buyers locking in a profit?

    Anyway, we've decided after following the progess of XTOLL for 10 years now, why let what we see as an 85% chance over next few months to change our lives pass by (like PDN,EXT,RIV & a few other stocks have done for others & I sold too early!) We sold 15 stocks & are using some house money too so are taking a 'calculated gamble' & increasing our holdings to over 500,000 (x $5 = $2.5 million...would be nice...who really knows as so many factors involved???)

    So,time will tell soon if we're smart or not but there are a lot of people who invested a lot more money into this & have a lot more to lose than we have so they will be even more upset than us if it doesn't happen! I keep looking at the risk V reward & think we need to take this opportunity & we'll accept the consequences if it doesn't pay off.
    Lots of HC guys seem to spend the same on everyday stocks!

    And to wind up...a month or so ago was having lunch with a friend & we walked past a 'Spiritual Expo' event so walked through for a look & they roped us in for a 'reading' - when I sat down the lady stared at me intently then first thing she said was 'You have a financial investment you've been waiting a very long time for & I can tell you it is going to come in for you & your patience will pay off'.
    She probably says that to everyone but it sure made my day!

    We're sitting on the edge of our seats, fingers crossed hoping for an announcement with exceptional results & a clear path to what the future course would be if so.
    I'm still buying this week as want extra in our Super Fund so better move your shares if you don't want to lose them.

    Please share your risk V reward ratio comments.


 
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