ASX 0.68% $82.02 asx limited

RISK and FALL of the Stockmarket empire

  1. 1,250 Posts.
    "The harder they come, the harder they fall,one and
    all." says the song. But what creates a stock market
    bubble and why must it burst?
    The stock market concerns comodities which have
    exchange value, but no use value. Comodities which are
    not used up. Neither by consumption, nor by productive
    consumption. Prices rise and fall with the
    fluctuations of supply and demand, but it's always the
    same paper which is changing hands.
    The comodities which are bought and sold on the
    stock exchange are basicly stocks and bonds. Bonds
    have very precise life spans, whereas stocks have
    indefinite ones. A production of new bonds often
    replaces some which have reached their repayment date.
    But new stocks do not necessarily coincide with a
    bankruptcy. This means that the growth rates of the
    quantity of bonds and that of stocks do not have the
    same potentials.
    Bonds come and go, but stocks are here to stay. The
    quantity of bonds in circulation can vary quite
    quickly. As some of them have short life spans. The
    quantity of stocks can rise fast, with new companies
    coming on the market. But companies must then go out
    of business to reduce this quantity.
    We have already discussed how demand is fuelled by
    credit and must follow the credit cycles. When the
    curves go up (the Kitchin and Juglar curves seem the
    most likely culprits), demand is strong. New stocks
    are produced and all stock prices rise. When the
    curves go down, demand is weak. Stock prices fall and
    everybody wonders what can be the outcome. But who can
    predict which companies will disappear? As they must,
    to reduce the quantity of stocks on a falling market.
    Sell out, or wait and see?
    There's an upturn forecast for 2004/2005. Time
    enough for a quick in and out. But prospects remain
    gloomy till 2011. And, not withstanding the G7 states
    handing out bundles of public cash, we can expect a
    high corporate mortality rate right across the board.
    And considerable co-lateral damage. Kenneth
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