HDR hardman resources limited

reports - can anyone post them?, page-2

  1. 1,747 Posts.
    Hi Hardmano,

    This is from one of my previous posts and is from O&G.

    Regards M.

    what next
    Posted 20/11/02 20:29 - 17 reads
    Posted by Mangrove
    Post #54548 - in reply to msg. #85891

    Took a bit of working out.

    Regards M.

    Thanks to what is obviously quite irrational selling by
    day traders HDR shares are, in the bulletin’s opinion,
    the most exciting stock on the oil boards at present.
    The reaction to the failure of the Thon wildcat to find
    commercial hydrocarbons has been almost
    unbelievable. Even though HDR didn’t contribute a
    single cent to this well which, moreover, was a long way
    from the previous action in what has now been
    convincingly established as a major hydrocarbon
    province, the company’s shares dropped more than
    20% on the news, with almost $60 million sliced off its
    market valuation. When such extraordinary things as
    this are allowed to happen, it makes one wonder what
    maniacs have been let loose in the market place. It
    didn’t make the slightest bit of difference that, when
    making the announcement about Thon’s failure, HDR’s
    managing director commented on what a wonderfully
    successful year his company had enjoyed in Mauritania,
    with the very positive results from appraisal drilling at
    Chinguetti and, on top of that, the most exciting oil and
    gas discovery at Banda. Reading between the lines,
    the bulletin is now almost certain at least 150 million
    barrels of recoverable oil have now been proved up at
    Chinguetti, and it doesn’t even need any reading
    between the lines to be pretty confident the huge Banda
    structure contains at least 100 million barrels of
    recoverable oil, and almost certainly a great deal more.
    And Banda, even at this very early stage, has been
    credited with several trillion cubic feet of natural gas
    which at this relatively shallow water location, and within
    quite easy reach of markets, has very significant value.
    And, what always must be remembered is that
    exploration of this truly fantastic area has barely started,
    with many dozens of highly attractive prospects and
    leads of various play types remaining to be tested.
    Surely nobody, in view of this, can seriously disagree
    with the bulletin’s assertion it is highly probable that
    HDR has already booked at least 50 million barrels of
    recoverable oil, and almost certainly more than this in
    barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of natural gas. While the
    bulletin isn’t even going to attempt to put a Net Present
    Value (NPV) on the gas, it’s simple enough to put one
    on the oil, and while it knows quite a few people will say
    it’s too high, the bulletin is sticking with its figure of ten
    Australian dollars a barrel, assuming high levels of
    production, which there’ll certainly be, are not much
    more than two years away. The bulletin is also counting
    on OPEC doing what’s necessary to maintain an oil
    price at around US$25 a barrel, and the Australian
    dollar remaining much where it is now. In other words,
    web site http://petroleum.co.nz 3 e-mail [email protected]
    the bulletin is working on an Australian dollar oil price of
    around $45 a barrel for its NPV of $10 a barrel. The
    bulletin is also counting on the high level of production
    to nullify the effect of the additional costs associated
    with a deep water location. Anyway, if this NPV is
    accepted, HDR’s share of the likely 250 million barrels
    of oil discovered in Mauritania to date, has a present
    worth of something over $500 million or, say, $1.20 a
    share as issued capital stands at present.

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