Redabyss puts bear glasses back on

  1. 1,383 Posts.
    Big mistake on Fri - a major shorting opportunity and I pulled out of AMP and BHP intraday shorts for a loss. Too skittish around key support - must stick to overall perspective rather than being contrarian and saying that so many bears means a reversal.

    It was indeed too premature to say the US had turned. Now in front of us we face - a week of US earnings, with surprises presumably on the downside (just like last night); the end of US window dressing (think July 1 in Oz) plus the usual background of uncertainty and gloom.

    The scenario now - first see if US SPX takes out tuesday 820 bottom (surely a cert) then the head and shoulders target at 800 then the July bottom at 777. Hard work but possible. So many resistances does not make the bear's task any easier.

    Some very weird stuff going down on some of the blues. Every charting rule told me I should short WPL like crazy Friday morning because it had breached and retested a major H&S neckline, but did I? No - because I dont know anything wrong with the stock except an unsubstantiated article about a placement. With oil prices up - what is happening? But charts rule OK - never argue with the market.

    Then there's the banks. Did we ever miss that short. All the way through the slump they hold their ground, while I grit my teeth and hold my big NAB put position, and get out of ANZ early. Finally NAB goes down a bit and I pull out thankfully on open for 15%, thinking how clever I am.

    The rest of the day and week it tanks viciously with missed profit now at 60%. At first I thought the dump was due to the instos using the banks as a money hoard they were now withdrawing from for AMP, BHP and RIO. But it gets too big for that and turns out to be based on some halfassed WBC ann which could be interpreted as a pseudo profit warning.

    Guess the banks are priced for perfection, and they aint perfect by any means.
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