Please find below updated AspectHuntley's recommendation for BHP as at 18 Dec 09.
Huntley's Recommendation: BHP Billiton Limited
Recommendation: Buy
Key from BHP's perspective are higher copper and iron ore price forecasts. Long term iron ore prices rise 26% to US$50/tonne and copper prices 25% to US$2.50/lb. BHP leverage pips RIO marginally given its lower aluminium exposure - for which we left prices unchanged - and its coking coal exposure which RIO lacks. We raised the long term coking coal price by 20% to US$120/tonne. Iron ore, copper and coking coal are three leading ingredients for developing world growth via urbanisation led by China. Our valuation and earnings forecasts for BHP increase substantially.
Business Impact: We increase our BHP valuation 17% to $50.80ps and upgrade our recommendation from Accumulate to Buy. Our FY10 and FY11 earnings forecasts increase 25% and 35% to $2.47ps and $3.06ps respectively. Our preference remains for the diversified resource majors for metals and bulks exposure. We think BHP remains the clear winner from a business quality perspective, but RIO outshines from a valuation perspective. At a price of $70.80ps, RIO trades at a 30% discount to valuation versus 19% for BHP at $41.05ps.
E*TRADE Broker consensus estimates are 2 strong buy, 1 moderate buy and 2 hold.
Brokers:
> Austock Securities Ltd
> E.L.& C.Baillieu Stockbroking
> Intersuisse Ltd
> Morningstar Australasia
> Ord Minnett
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Last
$43.59 |
Change
1.180(2.78%) |
Mkt cap ! $219.5B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$42.68 | $43.72 | $42.58 | $363.0M | 8.389M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 12430 | $43.59 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$43.60 | 29645 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 12430 | 43.590 |
2 | 867 | 43.570 |
2 | 850 | 43.550 |
1 | 13209 | 43.530 |
2 | 9968 | 43.520 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
43.600 | 29645 | 5 |
43.620 | 16005 | 2 |
43.630 | 6250 | 3 |
43.650 | 8997 | 4 |
43.670 | 17407 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 19/03/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$43.59 |
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Change
1.180 ( 2.71 %) |
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Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
$42.74 | $43.72 | $42.66 | 905210 | ||
Last updated 16.10pm 19/03/2024 ? |
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