SHG sunshine gas limited

question for testie (& pj could help)

  1. SCD
    3,438 Posts.
    Got to thinking about your assertion that SHG had a market capitalisation worth $60m...from which there have been comments (including my own) about the $ value per share.

    Where did you get your value of $60m from...because upon analysis I conclude that the net asset value is more like $178m...which is more conservative than Jeremy Towner who said on the website earlier this week that SHG had gas resource around $260m...of course he may know something I don't !

    Anyway, here is my calculation...tell me what you think

    ATP 645P Overston has 137 bcf - SHG has 50% share = 68 bcf
    ATP 685P Tardrum has 128 bcf - SHG has 40% of 50% share = 26 bcf (based on a 50% farmin with Santos - increasing to 51 bcf for 100% farmin to Santos but ignoring this for a moment but noting that this may account for Jeremy Towners' high valuation).

    Using the above figures based on mean gas-in-place without upside potential, the interstate acquistion and any upside from the drilling programme (i.e ATP 684P Comet and ATP 639 Cullin) over the next few months, I calculate that a gas resource of $178m net of lifting costs. SHG estimates that 1bcf of gas net of lifting costs is valued at $1.9m.

    Now, based on 75,872,864 issued shares and 29,125,360 issued options, I calculate that the values that the shares and options should readily achieve (as the projects pass the development thresholds) are $1.60 per share and $1.40 per option.

    Any thoughts ???
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.