KPC 0.00% 2.0¢ kazakhstan potash corporation limited

Quarterly Activities Report Review

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    At today’s closing price of 18.5c KPC is trading at a 73% discount to its book value (Current BV $324m.   Market Cap at close today $88m.   Book Value per Share 68.1c). Note current Book Value doesn’t include Satimola.
    Looks like most of those who bought at $1.30/$1.80 and were then trapped in the long trading halt seem to have bolted when they were let out last year, but haven’t taken into account the inherent worth of what KPC has at the moment.
    From the Quarterlies Activities Report we can derive a valuation for Zhilyanskoye alone as follows:
    For Muriate of Potash (MOP)
    Phase 1 Production Level: 600,000tonnes/year (A)
    Phase 2 Production Level: 1,200,000tonnes/year (B)
    Total Investment for Phase 1 & 2: USD$640m (C)
    Est. Annual Revenue for Phase 1 & 2: USD$237m (D)
    Annual Gross Profit for Phase 1 & 2: USD$104m (E)
    That would indicate a sales price per tonne of (D)/(B) = USD$197.50.
    Latest Potash prices are above USD$300 (
    Potash Price Chart - 6 Month - 12 Feb 2015.png
    It also indicates costs per tonne of ((D)-(E))/(B) = USD$110.83 plus opex, tax & interest. (PotashCorp’s production expenses were recently indicated as $113/tonne -

    For Sulphate of Potash Magnesium (SOPM)
    Phase 1 Production Level: 1,200,000tonnes/year (A)
    Phase 2 Production Level: 2,400,000tonnes/year (B)
    Total Investment for Phase 1 & 2: USD$1,360m (C)
    Est. Annual Revenue for Phase 1 & 2: USD$784m (D)
    Annual Gross Profit for Phase 1 & 2: USD$495m (E)
    That would indicate a sales price per tonne of (D)/(B) = USD$326.67.

    So, for Zhilyanskoye in total:
    Annual Gross Profit for Phase 1 & 2: USD$599m/AUD$768m (@AUD:USD 0.78)
    Total Investment for Phase 1 & 2: USD$2,000m/AUD$2,564m
    Allowing for the following annual costs:
    • Administration: AUD$10m
    • Interest (@ 7%): AUD$179m
    • Tax (@ 30%): AUD$174m
    Gives us net profit of AUD$405m (F)
    If all current shares, options and proposed shares (i.e. those to be provided upon completion of Satimola acquisition) are included to give us a fully diluted figure, the company would have 1,026,330,611 (G) shares in total. Note: I have not included any of the conversion revenue from options in this valuation.
    Earnings per Share (EPS): (F)/(G) = 39.5c per share.
    P/E: 10
    SP based on Zhilyanskoye alone: $3.95

    From the Quarterly Activities Report: Regarding the drilling program on Chelkarskoye “As the final hole in the current program has been completed, the company will now send consultants to review the results, and complete the necessary QA/QC checks. Following this work, the company will release the results of the drilling to the market.”

    Given we’re 6 weeks into the year, that market update shouldn’t be too far away.
    Last edited by Freighter32: 12/02/15
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