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  1. Brantley

    2,629 Posts.

    Copy of post from asxboard.....

    Brantley
    Posted: Thu 25/03/04 09:46pm

    R/Brantley

    Due to the terrorists rail attack in Spain the Homeland Security Research Corporation have released a White Paper on Mitigating Rail Terror. Please read the PDF file attached. It appears that this event will create a market for additional screening devices in the rail industry. In the report there is a comparison of Passenger Screening Cost Comparison: Aviation and Rail Scenario. See below. As can be seen from the report the rail industry is a very large addition to the security screening industry. I have copied the table below. This should add additional opportunities for QRS.

    This post is not meant to be insensitive to the events in Spain, but to point-out that all forms of transportation are subject to attack and will need to be protected.

    Cheers,
    Brantley

    -----------------------
    QUOTE

    Table 1 - Passenger Screening Cost Comparison: Aviation and Rail Scenario

    # of Passengers (annually) US Airports 650 Million
    Cost of Passenger Screening(1)          $3 Billion

    # of Passengers (annually) Amtrak 500 Million
    Cost of Passenger Screening(1)    $2.4 Billion

    # of Passengers (annually) European Railways 6000 Million
    Cost of Passenger Screening(1)        $27 Billion
    -------------------------------------

    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    © HSRC, 2004. All Rights Reserved Page - 1
    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    Analysis by: Homeland Security Research Corporation (HSRC)*
    Although the recent terror attack against trains and passengers in Spain is
    horrifying and alarming on its own, terror against rail passengers and transport is
    not a new phenomenon; only the scale, sophistication and public impact of the
    attack in Madrid sets it apart. For a variety of reasons that will be described
    below in detail, similar attacks or attempts at attacks are likely to be with us for
    the foreseeable future.
    Beyond the immediate shock, horror and sense of helplessness in the face of
    such threats, it is important to note that railroad anti-terror security can and
    should be improved considerably in a cost-effective way.
    Why terrorists choose and will probably continue to choose rail transport for their
    destructive and disruptive activities is clear: Targets (stations, rail lines, people/
    hazardous materials (HAZMAT) and other freight) are ubiquitous, and difficult to
    defend; train cars carry hundreds of passengers in an enclosed environment
    where a medium size explosion will wreck maximum damage; the potential for
    economic disruption is substantial and the modes of terror delivery are simple
    and multiple: A well placed obstacle on the rail can cause as much damage as a
    well placed bomb.
    Rail Transportation - High Vulnerability - Low Protection
    The magnitude of the vulnerability of rail infrastructure is easy to quantify by
    looking at the following figures:
    Almost 2 trillion passenger-miles traveled each year worldwide
    Almost 6 billion passenger trips in Western Europe each year
    Almost 500 million passenger trips traveled each year in the US (Amtrak
    More than 500 Amtrak stations in the US
    More than 2000 additional rail transit stations in the US (subway and light
    In 2002, the total number of passenger/kilometers carried by rail in Europe
    (EU 15, Central and Eastern European countries, Norway, Switzerland)
    was 368 billion
    In 2002, more than 387 billion tons/kilometers of freight were carried by
    rail in Europe
    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    © HSRC, 2004. All Rights Reserved Page - 2
    More than 140,000 miles of rail lines in the US - largely unprotected and
    far from inhabited areas
    38,000 miles of rail lines designated "strategically important" by the DOD.
    More than 100,000 miles of rail lines in Western Europe
    More than 100 light/metro rail systems in Western Europe
    More than a billion tons of freight moving every year across European rail
    networks, including dozens of millions of tons of hazardous materials
    (HAZMAT) transport.
    A few weeks after the events of 9/11, the US Government mandated that every
    train passenger mush carry a picture ID to purchase and board a train. While the
    rule is maintained for purchasing a ticket, passengers are rarely required to
    identify themselves while boarding a train. Add to this the large number of unmanned
    train stations, where passengers board without any supervision and the
    level of vulnerability is obvious.
    Twenty-four hours after the Madrid attack rail security became a high priority
    homeland security political topic in Washington. Senators Biden and Carper
    introduced a bill allocating $515 Million to fund security research and provide
    added security to trains and rails. It is highly doubtful the measure will become a
    law.
    This, while more and more people, particularly in Western Europe, are using rail
    transport as their main method of commuting, as well as a substitute to short and
    medium range air travel.
    The history of rail terror stretches back to the early days of rail travel, in America,
    Europe, Asia and Africa. Rail transport was always a highly effective target for
    poorly-equipped attackers. Lawrence of Arabia attacked trains in a bid to weaken
    the Turkish opponent in WWI; during WWII partisans and resistance fighters all
    over Europe used explosives and various derailment methods to disrupt the
    economies of the enemy; terrorists attempted several times to derail trains in
    Israel; Chechen terrorists attacked Russian trains (both regular and subways),
    causing widespread destruction and hundreds of casualties. As recently as last
    month, the French government has been dealing with train derailment blackmail
    threats, where the blackmailers demonstrated their capabilities by placing several
    explosions along France’s extended rail network.
    Rail terror is attractive in part because it can be carried out with minimal
    resources and in multiple ways:
    Remote controlled detonations inside rail cars, as was done in Madrid
    Derailing and exploding passenger and HAZMAT trains
    Stand-off, flat trajectory fire (anti-tank missiles, bazooka, rifles) or
    explosives attack on a HAZMAT-load train inside an urban environment
    can cause a human, economic and environmental catastrophe
    Mechanical derailing
    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    © HSRC, 2004. All Rights Reserved Page - 3
    Electronic interference with rail traffic control infrastructure (leading to
    collisions and derailments)
    Attack against bridges and tunnels
    Attacks against train stations (suicide or remote controlled)
    Railway-Related Vs Aviation Passenger-Borne Terror
    To better understand the magnitude and scale of railway-related terror mitigation
    lets compare it to aviation-related terror mitigation.
    Since 9/11, the US Homeland Security Transportation Security Agency [TSA]
    focused most of its resources on beefing up and restructuring aviation security's
    infrastructure.
    According to Homeland Security Research Corp (HSRC) analysis, the annual
    outlay for airport screening stands at $5 billion. Over the 2.5 years of upgrades of
    US airports’ security, the total outlay reached over $12 billion and was used to
    hire 55,000 federal screeners, install 4,700 Explosives Trace Detectors (ETD),
    1,200 CT-like checked luggage Explosive Detection Systems (EDS), and deploy
    over 35,000 x-ray systems and metal detection portals. Dividing the cost of all
    this security by the total number of air travelers results in a cost of screening per
    passenger per trip of about $8.00 (including screening the passenger, hand-held
    baggage and checked luggage). The cost of screening an airport passenger
    excluding his/her checked luggage hovers around $4.50. Since most train
    passengers do not carry luggage, this $4.50 rate is used in this analysis.
    The following table provides a comparison of cost of screening in the aviation
    sector in the US with forecasted cost of screening for America's Amtrak and
    Western Europe's commuter train passengers using current aviation screening
    methods.
    Table 1 - Passenger Screening Cost Comparison: Aviation and Rail Scenario
    # of Passengers (annually) Cost of Passenger Screening(1)
    US Airports 650 Million $3 Billion
    Amtrak 500 Million $2.4 Billion
    European
    Railways 6000 Million $27 Billion
    (1) Calculated at $4.50 per screened passenger
    Note:
    While Amtrak passenger traffic volume is nearly identical to that of US
    commercial aviation, the volume of European commuter rail passengers is an
    order of magnitude larger than both (separately).
    As shown in Table 1, it is clear that the costs of screening of rail passengers (w/o
    the costs of the architectural modifications of rail stations) is an unacceptable
    burden on the bottom line of the railway industries in both Europe and the US.
    Such a burden will divert governments' anti-terror funding (if they decide to cover
    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    © HSRC, 2004. All Rights Reserved Page - 4
    the expense) from other important homeland security priorities (e.g., first
    responders, weapons of mass destruction]. Moreover, adding other land
    transportation modes, such as subways, will more than triple the cost of security.
    The Future of Railway Passenger Screening
    Since the screening of rail passengers would entail a major restructuring and
    expense, HSRC forecasts that until another major passenger-borne train terror
    attack will occur most governments of the free world will not invest in extensive
    deployment of rail passenger screening. Having stated that, we believe that the
    US, EU, and Japan, will embark on extensive research, development and
    experimental pilot projects to try to address this issue in the future in a costeffective
    manner. Such programs will be driven also by other needs to screen
    people such as the screening of people at sport stadiums and other public
    events, and shopping malls.
    For the foreseeable future, HSRC forecasts two distinct approaches to the
    problem:
    Adopting the Israeli model of train passenger screening
    Adding a line of next generation people screening technologies
    The Israeli Train Passenger Screening Model
    Over the past several years Israel had to deal with an increasing number of
    terror attacks on its transportation infrastructure, including rail. To cope with
    this threat, the country's security authorities implemented a rail traffic
    passenger screening method that includes three elements:
    1. The number of entries and exits from each railway station was limited
    to a manageable few.
    2. Armed screeners equipped with hand-held metal detectors screen
    each passenger at the entrance to each station, the screener
    exchanges a few words with the passenger, hand held bags are
    manually searched, and metal detection screening is performed on the
    passenger torso. This procedure is performed in its entirety on about
    99% of passengers, taking 7-20 seconds/passenger, resulting in a
    peak screening rate of over 500 passengers/hour by a single screener.
    Thus, avoiding any congestion even during rush hours.
    3. Response testing crews (“Red teams”) are constantly searching for
    loopholes in the system.
    At Israeli security labor rates of $5 per hour, the cost of screening a single
    passenger (at a hundred passengers per hour per screener) is about 5
    cents. At a European/US labor cost of $12/hour, the same procedure will
    cost about 12 cents per passenger. The key to the Israeli success is
    effective training and motivation of the screeners, all of them young army
    veterans.
    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    © HSRC, 2004. All Rights Reserved Page - 5
    An adoption of the Israeli model could be problematic in other countries as
    recruiting such high level screeners at a minimal wage can be an
    impediment. On the other hand, if adopted, it could provide an
    exceptionally cost-effective solution (e.g., with Europe’s 6 billion
    passengers a year, it would cost less than $1 billion a year.)
    Next Generation People Screening Technologies
    Next generation people screening technologies will be based on extensive
    use of the following technologies:
    1. Biometric identification (or biometric driving license) as used, for
    example, in Switzerland, will allow the issuing of an EZpass for most
    trusted passengers. A small number of these trusted passengers will
    be sampled and screened randomly (see Figures 1 and 2).
    2. Selected passengers will be screened using an integrated, fusedtechnologies,
    people and hand-held baggage multi-threat checkpoint
    (Figure 2).
    3. The few passengers that will be identified by the system as suspects,
    will be intercepted for further screening by security personnel.
    Figure 1 - Passenger Flow Diagram At An Integrated People-Baggage Checkpoint
    Of The Future
    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    © HSRC, 2004. All Rights Reserved Page - 6
    Screening a passenger and his/her baggage will take place in the following
    manner (see Figure 2):
    1. Screened passenger places his/her hand-held baggage on the conveyor
    belt of an automatic weapon / explosives screening system.
    2. Screened passenger enters the screening portal and undergoes a body
    screening for weapons / explosives.
    3. Identity check and verification (using a biometric card at the integrated
    people-baggage checkpoint of the future).
    Figure 2 - Multi-Threat, Fused-Technology People and Hand-Held Baggage
    Screening Portal
    Research conducted by Homeland Security Research Corp. (HSRC) and
    published in its “2003-2010 People Screening Market/Technology Forecast"
    concluded that the cost of such screening per passenger will be about 15-20
    cents. The advantages of such concept are:
    1. The cost per person screened is only 5% of current cost of screening
    a single passenger at an airport checkpoint.
    2. This concept is by and large automatic, and independent of screener's
    judgment and competence.
    A major inhibitor to such a concept in the US and EU is the difficulty to implement
    a nation-wide smart biometric I.D. card. We forecast that this approach will be
    considered seriously only after a substantial change in public opinion, which may
    take place in the wake of more terror attacks.
    Railway-Related Terror - A Major, Reducible Vulnerability
    © HSRC, 2004. All Rights Reserved Page - 7
    Mitigating Rail Network Terror
    Despite the apparent difficulty to adequately protect such a huge, disperse and
    accessible network, anti-terror administrations can take several steps to reduce
    vulnerability:
    Well-positioned, combined daylight CCTV and passive infrared nightimaging
    sensors can have an effect of “virtual fences” (incorporated with
    threat analysis software to reduce cost of labor and false alarms). Present
    day core technologies will allow the development of such systems at prices
    of less than $5-10K per kilometer.
    There are several classified sensors that can add protection to bridges and
    tunnels.
    Trains can be equipped with anti-wireless remote control detonation triggers.
    Such proven technologies block wireless detonation (though they will not
    mitigate cable detonation and suicide attacks). Some of these technologies
    will interfere with the passengers' ability to conduct cell-phone calls.
    HAZMAT trains will have to bypass urban/metro area.
    Currently, there are no effective technologies to mitigate standoff terror from
    flat trajectory fire (e.g., anti- tank missiles, bazooka, high-power rifles).
    Forecast
    HSRC forecasts the following:
    R&D for specific train-related terror will be increase markedly, at an overall outlay
    of approximately $1 Billion, particularly in the following areas:
    • Day and night imaging methods for identifying derailment threats.
    • Low false alarm rate threat detection software
    • Command, Control and Communication software (to be integrated with
    current train network control systems)
    • Pilot projects at high risk locations (e.g., NY, DC)
    • It will probably take another train-related terror attack to have the NATO
    block (including USA, EU, Canada), and other countries (including Japan
    which came under Al Qaeda threat last week, for cooperating with the US
    in Iraq) and invest $6-15 Billion to install such an infrastructure to protect
    the US, EU and Japan’s rail networks.
    Sources: HSRC's reports, including:
    2003-2010 People Screening Market Report
    2003-2010 Hand-Held Baggage Screening Market Report
    2003 - People Screening Product Comparison Report
    2003 - Hand-Held Baggage Screening Product Comparison Report
    * About Homeland Security Research Corporation (HSRC)
    Homeland Security Research Corporation (HSRC) is an independent, San Jose, CA
    based market and technology research organization, dedicated solely to studying and
    reporting about the homeland security industry and its products, providing airport,
    seaport, enterprise and government security professionals with premium market forecast
    and product comparison reports, information, analysis, and consulting services.
    (www.hsrc.biz) Tel: 408-295-4000.

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