AUZ 4.17% 2.3¢ australian mines limited

@chilunsin but it's very unrealistic. I don't think the NAIF is...

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    @chilunsin but it's very unrealistic. I don't think the NAIF is putting 1.4 billion out of 5 billion into a nickel mine.

    Of course I will show you my personal opinion, but please excuse me as I am not a native speaker.

    From the data of the economic study and the Q-reports, I suspect the financing will look something like this:

    - 400-585 million by banks. When the feasibility study was published, the following was still included:
    "Work undertaken by Medea has shown that the Sconi Project is likely to support senior secured project finance debt of up to US$585 millionindicating a gearing level of 60% of upfront capital expenditure."
    - 200 million by NAIF.
    - 100-200 million by SK. Here I could imagine that SK would receive a gift of 19.99% of shares for it. Why? (2). When the feasibility study was published, the following was still included:
    "Potential support from SK Innovation: Australian Mines isalsoexamining other forms of funding including the possibility of off-take pre-payments from the binding off-take agreement with SK Innovation. According to the Sconi BFS, the Company’s revenue from sale of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate over the initial term of the binding off-take agreement is projected to exceed $600 million per year"
    - 50-150 million Streaming for example with Cobal27. When the feasibility study was published, the following was still included:
    "The royalty and streaming market has significantly expanded over the past few years with the established royalty companies and new entrants such as Cobalt 27, who recently acquired a royalty over theFlemington Cobalt-Scandium-Nickel projectowned by Australian Mines"

    If there is still a sum left here, a strategic investor could join in later. I don't think SK would like to be diluted if it were. Of course, if SK doesn't want the 19.99%, could someone else have it like BHP? We know BHP is looking for some Nickel mines.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nickel-output-amid-battery-boom-idUSKCN1SS00G

    (2)Why do I think SK gets 19.99%? Now there are 2 reasons:

    1) SK will certainly want to exert influence because you have made a multi billion deal. You would certainly like to sit on the supervisory board to minimize risks and to always be up to date in order to be able to take measures or exert influence if necessary. Not that you end up getting Bergen on board again (in the funny sense of the word).
    2) I am not a financial expert, but I have often heard that equity must be available from a balance sheet perspective. Since loans, prepayments and streaming do not count as equity, SK could pay a symbolic sum for the 19.99%.

    What does it mean exactly: SK gives a prepayment of 150 million US dollars. For the 19.99% stake in the company SK pays 50 million U.S. dollars. Now comes the but. Australian Mines pays back products for 150 million US dollars + 40% as kind of interest. So Australian Mines would ultimately pay back 210 million US dollars for the 150. Of course, the 50 million for the 19.99% are included. I call it smart cheating. Hopefully the repayment will be based on the current LME price.

    Now I would like to come back again to the bank credit and afterwards to the streaming:
    Australian Mines published the following about the bank loan in its latest quarterly report:
    "Australian Mines continuedto investigate a range of project funding options during the March 2019 quarter, including a combination of off-take pre-payments, senior debt funding, royaltyand/or streaming options, funding support via the Commonwealth Government’s Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF)6and mezzanine financing. These project financing discussions are being progressed with the assistanceof UK-based Medea Capital Partners as the Company’s principal financial advisor"
    In a not so old Reuters report the following was still to be found (beginning May)
    "Bell said the company is speaking with a consortium of six to eight Australian and global banks, and is looking at debt and equity combinations including pre-payments and royalties."

    Cobalt27 bought the license from Flemington. Without Sconi no Flemington. Find out how much capital Cobalt27 has. They can really help us. Hopefully to good conditions.

    The fact is, the banks are still in play. Some even.

    ....

    Anastacia is the Prime Minister of Queensland. It's strange that the volume goes up so brute without any news. For months no one has bought anything and suddenly something like that? Very strange. Blackrock sold last summer. I personally suspect that they are now positioning themselves again. Blackrock is the largest asset manager in the world and certainly have some insight as to whether Australian Mines will make it or not.

    Anastacia has already mentioned Sconi several times and in my opinion it would be a bit embarrassing if such a promising company plays an important role in the future. We all know how aggressive SK and the car manufacturers are in electric mobility. Anyone with a brain knows that we will have a material shortage later and prices will go up.

    I would be happy if we could pay off the equipment in the shortest possible time, because it is exactly the time after the ramp up is completed.
    I could now write for a few pages about the Queensland region that jobs are needed there... the purchase of Bell Creek and Minnamooka where there are many open questions.

    If the material is not sufficient for SK. Need more? Will the plant be larger than expected? Is it just because of the resource?

    The Reuters article said the following:

    “We are hopeful that we will get everything wrapped up by the end of June,”

    I don't think Australian Mines will be able to make another appointment and not keep it. So I suspect that what we have been waiting for will be released in the coming days. Signed long term, financing and start of construction.

    You know what's funny about that, then? Bergen and the late dates have pushed the stock price so far down that the winners are the ones who have bought all the time. Because if Australian Mines manages to finance it with no dilution or a maximum of 19.99%, the share price will go through the roof. And those who believed in it and have always bought further have now still much more %te than before (Of course only if you have bought more like the dilution)

    Tesla predicts a bottleneck, VW will switch everything to electric as well as other manufacturers that are slowly coming behind. Battery manufacturers cannot build that much factories what the marcet needs. Climate critiques that accelerate that. Australian Mines is the winner when the plant is built.

    And hey there is Flemington and Scandium.

    Maybe soon everything will be cleared up, why everything was so quiet and no messages came. Maybe everything was really true:

    #keepthefaith
    #allgoodthings...

    I'm really quitting now... although I could really write for hours... I really doubted and cursed a lot but it really looks like Sconi is being built.

    Most important source:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...eyes-financing-deal-by-end-june-idUSKCN1S90F6


    upload_2019-5-25_18-38-36.png

    About SK: Reuters:
    SK Innovation confirmed that talks were ongoing but declined further comment.
    Last edited by Invis: 26/05/19
 
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