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  1. stolwyk

    22,691 Posts.

    There is a feeling that the cluster of 3 patents still to come will be home at end of August. (Months ago, I predicted mid Sept.)

    As to FA, latest info from Remicade informs us that the revenue is "running rampant" at a cost to Enbrel. I had to revise my calculations and subject to satisfactory Remicade royalty flows from the US, I expect a NPAT of $72 mill. in the year to 30 Sept. 2003. (No tax to pay).

    On that basis and on the current price of $2.30, the P/E for that year is 4.9.

    If we multiply that P/E by 2 then the resulting P/E of 9.8 is not too high when these US royalties come in. That is the equivalent of $4.60, possibly at the beginning of Oct, some 10 weeks away.

    Those are my opinions,

    Disclaimer: Outcomes may be different than projected. Data is based on full Remicade royalties to flow from Oct. 1, 2002. Readers are not asked to buy, hold or sell shares; to do so will be at their own risk.

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