GBG 0.00% 2.9¢ gindalbie metals ltd

projected earnings, pe and sp

  1. 195 Posts.
    I appreciate we all need to do our own research but for some fun would anyone with accounting or fundamental analysis experience care to comment on what the EPS and P/E will look like for GBG in the next 12-24 months? I also appreciate there's plenty of factors which could change the outcome but wouldn't mind knowing what others think.

    The inputs and assumptions I'd start with are -
    - assume GBG management know what they're doing,
    - assume the debt financing will be achieved by April 2010,
    - assume there will be no major delays to the first year (2011) forecast initial production rate of 8Mtpa concentrate & 2Mtpa DSO.
    - GBG's 28 Nov announcement forecast A$1 billion initial revenues one day ramping to $A3 billion.
    - Shares currently on issue sit (I think) at around 710 million
    - As a first year producer in 2011, the market might apply an ultra conservative P/E ratio of say 6.

    Now, let me just say my maths might be totally stuffed and I may be confusing revenues with earnings ?? (so those of us who know better, please correct me if I have this wrong!!) but A$1 billion / 710 million = $1.40 per share and if the P/E was 6 doesn't that equal $8.40 per share? If this is anywhere near to being correct, even if I halve the $1 billion to bring the SP back to around $4, then $1 today looks cheap to me if I'm prepared to wait at least 12-24 months remembering the key assumptions.

    Then if I stay in for the long haul, Oakajee port becomes a reality in 2014, GBG's 30-35mpta target is reached together with the A$3 billion of revenues, then maybe a $10 plus shareprice becomes a real possibility in the next 5 years or so. Thoughts anyone?
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