FCL 2.20% $3.55 fineos corporation holdings plc

Profit warning - one off, or sign of problems?, page-8

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    FCL management are, in my opinion, some of the best around. It is a very tightly run ship that takes calculated riskd to rapidly grow investor capital.

    The bit in bold is the current problem.

    Alan Newman is a true entrepreneur who has a remarkable eye for opportunity and a real skill at picking when to buy and sell - see AAC for example...I posted at the time the old rule - never buy what Alan Newman is selling.

    The issues that they are currently facing is a run of business outs, a poor insurance arrangement being the trigger to the current problem.

    But I reckon possible drought is the big over riding issue.

    Just think about how much he is effected - through the remaining holding in AAC (cattle) through Elders Rural (the farm supply business) AND often forgotten - through his significant holding in Incitec Fertiliser (ICT) a strategic stake he picked up to greenmail ORI over in reltaion to the looming rationalisation of the Australian fertiliser industry.

    On top of that you can add the recent industrial dispute which effected Air International.

    On the plus side is Bendigo Bank (which just might also be effected by drought given its regional focus) and his options in the ITC timber play though this is not going to see much business now for another year as most of the tax-effective investing takes place in the last couple of months of the financial year.....it will probably need to be consumated before then though requiring him to outlay capital at a time when the share price has gone south...

    Overall not a compelling proposition imo.
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