AEV 0.00% 0.9¢ avenira limited

profit taking, page-2

  1. 4,058 Posts.
    hey saracen hehehe
    nah drinking is only good in moderation so dont go over the top lol

    on your point i did this DCF yesterday in case you missed it, it assumes a bubble in the rock phosphate price and then it assumes that there is a population crash because people starve to death and that there is also oversupply of mines coming on a bit late
    2010: 350
    2011: 450
    2012: 300 (sharp reduction in population?)
    2013: 250
    2014: 200 (over supply in rock phosphate?)
    2015: 150
    2016: 135
    2017: 120
    2018: 120
    2019: 100
    2020: mine is sub economic (assume).

    if such a bearish thing occurs but with that bubble in the next few years then the DCF $14.89/share


    Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    Ore treated ('000s t) 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600 4600
    Grade (MINERAL) 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00%
    STANDARD GRADE 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30% 32.30%
    Concentrate recovery 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
    Metal ('000s t) 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548 2506.501548
    Price US$tonne 350 450 300 250 200 150 135 120 120 100

    Inflation 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Exchange Rate $A/$US 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
    Smelter charge US$/T
    ($ million unless otherwise shown)
    Other operating costs (?)
    WASTE '000s t? (OPEN PIT)
    Metal Price A$/t 0 437.5 562.5 375 312.5 250 187.5 168.75 150 150 125
    Metal Revenue 1096.594427 1409.907121 939.9380805 783.2817337 626.625387 469.9690402 422.9721362 375.9752322 375.9752322 313.3126935

    Less TCIRC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Sales Revenue 1096.594427 1409.907121 939.9380805 783.2817337 626.625387 469.9690402 422.9721362 375.9752322 375.9752322 313.3126935
    Marketing 10.96594427 14.09907121 9.399380805 7.832817337 6.26625387 4.699690402 4.229721362 3.759752322 3.759752322 3.133126935
    Net Revenue 1085.628483 1395.80805 930.5386997 775.4489164 620.3591331 465.2693498 418.7424149 372.2154799 372.2154799 310.1795666
    Less

    Operating cost/t 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393 225.5851393

    EBITDA 860.0433437 1170.22291 704.9535604 549.8637771 394.7739938 239.6842105 193.1572755 146.6303406 146.6303406 84.59442724
    Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
    CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 54 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 CAPEX 60
    Debt Repayment 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Debt 0.5 30
    Debt Outstanding 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 Equity 0.5 30
    Interest Cost 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0 Mine Life 10
    EBTDA 857.3433437 1167.82291 702.8535604 548.0637771 393.2739938 238.4842105 192.2572755 146.0303406 146.3303406 84.59442724 Interest rate on debt 10.00%
    Taxation Depreciation 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Assumed raising S.P 1.2
    Depreciation carried fwd 60 54 48 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0 Depreciation p.a 6
    Exploration carried 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dilution 25
    Pre-tax income (EBT) 851.3433437 1161.82291 696.8535604 542.0637771 387.2739938 232.4842105 186.2572755 140.0303406 140.3303406 78.59442724 # of current shares 100
    Tax @ 30% 255.4030031 348.5468731 209.0560681 162.6191331 116.1821981 69.74526316 55.87718266 42.00910217 42.09910217 23.57832817
    Project Profit 595.9403406 813.2760372 487.7974923 379.444644 271.0917957 162.7389474 130.3800929 98.02123839 98.23123839 55.01609907
    Cashflow project -54 600.7403406 818.0760372 492.8974923 384.544644 276.4917957 168.1389474 136.0800929 103.7212384 103.9312384 60.71609907
    THE BOTTOM LINE
    NPV @ 5% $2,491.04 NPV/SHARE FD 18.11664071
    NPV @ 10% $2,048.62 NPV/SHARE FD 14.89908453
    NPV @ 15% $1,713.64 NPV/SHARE FD 12.46286865
    NPV @ 20% $1,454.07 NPV/SHARE FD 10.57508037
 
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