Price Prediction for BTC if Spot ETF is Approved

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    Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Research Chief at Fundstrat, asserted in an August 16 discussion with CNBC Squawk Box that a succession of successful spot bitcoin ETF applications could wield the power to reshape the equilibrium of bitcoin's supply and demand, thereby inducing significant price appreciation.Lee, when prompted for his forecasted year-end bitcoin price, confidently responded, "In the event of an approved spot bitcoin [ETF], the demand could potentially outpace the daily bitcoin supply, driving the price above $150,000, and conceivably even reaching around $180,000."Lee added a caveat that this scenario hinges on the sanction of a U.S.-endorsed spot bitcoin ETF, considering the existence of analogous ETFs in Europe.Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that the U.S. presently commands an overwhelming 97.7 percent share of trading volume in crypto-linked ETFs. This figure could potentially surge to 99.5 percent upon the endorsement of a spot bitcoin ETF.Even in the event of a declined spot ETF application, Lee envisages a substantial price hike post Bitcoin's impending halving event, projected for April 2024."As supply contracts anew, a price surge would be inevitable. Yet, a six-figure valuation might remain out of reach."In June, prominent players on Wall Street, including Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree, and Valkyrie, emulated BlackRock, the globe's largest asset management firm, by submitting a filing to the SEC for a bitcoin spot ETF.Nonetheless, the destiny of some of these entities could remain uncertain until sometime in 2024, as the SEC retains the authority to reach a conclusive decision within 240 days of initiating the review procedure.Anticipated outcomes regarding Grayscale's proposal to convert its GBTC Trust into a Bitcoin Spot ETF are expected to manifest sooner rather than later.ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart recently assessed the odds of regulatory approval for these bitcoin spot ETFs at 65 percent, marking a considerable rise since BlackRock's submission.Some voices have insinuated that the bitcoin valuation could potentially breach $100,000 sooner than anticipated. Blockstream CEO Adam Back recently placed a bet on bitcoin hitting a novel price milestone a month before the halving event.However, a unanimous consensus is lacking. Jesse Myer, Co-Founder of bitcoin investment firm Onramp, reasoned on August 15 that the market would fully factor in changes only 12-18 months post the halving event."Bitcoin's ascent to $100,000 will coincide with the next halving," he remarked.
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