PEP 0.00% $3.69 pepper i-prime 2017-3 trust

peplin biotech - attention shareholders

  1. 3,567 Posts.
    I believe Peplin is devloping a treatment for BCC and SCC skin caners by their PEP005 compound which is already licenced out.

    They are set to receive milestone payments which could amount to US22m and a royalty rate there after (probably around 2-5%).

    The current number of shares on issue is about 60m and with a stock price of 65c the market cap is $39m (approx). They have around $5m cash in the bank which means the value attributed to the possible milestone payments and royalty stream is quite low if you think there is more than 10% chance the drug being successful and being a possible front line treatment for BCC and SCC.

    Here comes the tricky part. Novogen (NRT) who is developing their Phenoxodiol compound and the latest indication is that it works on Skin cancer. They have started a Phase II trial on BCC and SCC types of skin cancer at RNS hospital after a doctor found that it worked in his patients in a pilot trial (Novogen haven't stated to what degree). Here is a comment from another chat site:

    "One patient who is on a trial for a specific cancer also had a very severe case of skin cancer on both legs. After a very short time on phenoxodiol the tumours were described to me as "just starting to drop off". I must say that I immediately queried this description but was assured that the treatment appeared to be that dramatic in it's effect."

    So basically Peplin looks cheap if you assume it's compound has a good chance of getting through but if Novogen's treatment works as well as described above then Peplin's technology could be obsolete even before it makes it to the commercialisation stage.
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