PAR 0.00% 34.5¢ paradigm biopharmaceuticals limited..

Paradigmers, a very good evening to you. My evenings are getting...

  1. 4,050 Posts.
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    Paradigmers, a very good evening to you. My evenings are getting better, specially since we have had some decent share price appreciation over the last few months. Just recently my 'Tick' system of news has ticked off a HC fellow poster or two...but that's ok...we can happily ignore them.

    Lets try a different tact with the Mozzarc Star © system instead! Please enjoy:


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1779/1779846-b5300fce36409f3f5299d5d20834109d.jpg
    Mozzarc Star rating system, up for debate certainly, in fact if you have better ideas or your own thoughts, write em' up and post em'.


    Ok so I've applied a rating system to each news item that is due in the next 3 months or so...

    KEY

    • Ability to Lift Share price - obvious, how much can this news impact the propensity for our SP to move upwardly!
    • Total Spread of News - meaning, how will the press report on us, how will the common person hear about us...if not the common person then the average Joe Blo investor.
    • Novel/Market Surprise Factor - how left of field will this be...what's the wow factor, as an example this could be quite a surprise as we saw in the Peer Review news...it was amazing.,....the news itself I thought was compelling, but the impact on the SP was more than I would've thought.
    • Average - Well the Final Mozz Star awarded. Higher the better. Maximum is 5. Lets cross to the winners...




    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1779/1779858-9ba2a3ed6f66337f94a2bb231d4044c0.jpg



    DISCUSSION

    We are so fortunate to be in the enviable position of having MULTIPLE news fronts...it's rare that a company have 3 different indications all on the boil all at once.

    Ok so what's my logic with the above? Well the two Phase 3 applications are big no doubt, OA has a much wider appeal, a bigger audience..hardly anyone knows about MPS or who it impacts and what it is exactly, fair enough with just 3.5 affected out of 100,000 births...we are more informed of course at HC...BUT they (the two Phase three submissions) rank equally in my mind, why? Because the path to MPS revenue is much quicker than OA... OA is a great beast..it will take lots of patients in the third phase trial to rule out all the combinations of how our drug interact with other drugs, the impact on so many variations of patients and ages of patients and the permutations and combinations etc etc. MPS is already Orphan designated, it affects such a tiny population...but the revenue scope is up there and the path is potentially quicker.

    The Ten American patient results, it may not be till next year Jan or even Feb...but trust me, it will be big when it is released. Why? Imagine all the American press reporting on their own athletes having less to no pain when they could barely walk before...it will be very big news and not only the big hedge funds will hear of this, the average person in the street will hear this news...Don't forget, some of these funds have 100 Billion USD FUM - funds under management ...This will be a game changer and a needle mover and will put us in focus, my views.

    DOD - yes well this is a little ho hum compared to some of the others, don't get me wrong, in isolation this would be good news for sure, but it is less known, the numbers are smaller...but the thing that swings it back from a lower impact (read lower Mozzarc Star rating) is the fact that it could be early revenue for us, always a good thing and specially when we don't have much (any) at the current moment. Kinda like my ground level view comparing it to level 30; https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/par-the-billion-dollar-timeline.4960102/

    TGA - This one rates fairly high as this will be real revenue and quick in that it is possible to generate meaningful revenue before the Third Phase Trial is over! This will be exciting and there are estimates floating around that the first full year could be as much as 25 Million in Aus alone, decent and substantial and will prove to the world what we have is good and is working. There is a large difference between companies that just have growth potential with no revenue compared to companies having some revenue. Paradigmers and newbies, do you guys realise we may get this designation some time next year? Do you know how close that is? (Specially for me after waiting since 2015)

    Oh Yeah, these are definitely exciting times for our star studded PAR wink.png



    DISCALIMERS

    Now of course the Mozzarc Star system could be completely wrong and the actual news may have an unexpected and different impact to what I and you think. Standard Disclaimers apply, not a great idea to rely solely on what I say. You really should do your own research before investing in this or any other company. Take a balanced approach and please always note how your portfolio and your overall situation may be affected and impacted by an "Adverse Event" in terms of PAR's Share price! You know my stance, what I feel...but do consider if something were to go wrong.

    There could be hurdles that I can't predict, finally no one can tell the future. There is a rough schedule for these news releases but they may be protracted and the entire timetable, as we have seen in the past, can be delayed. I'm enthusiastic about the future of PAR and what I've read and researched so far, BUT despite the awful pain it would generate, I can just barely take the heinous hit if the unthinkable happens. Good luck to us! I think we're gonna be alright.
    Last edited by Mozzarc: 19/10/19
 
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