Over the last week I’ve been thinking about the global bull case for Orthocells "flagship" product Remplir, both for peripheral nerve repair and potentially for RARP (robot-assisted radical prostatectomy).
There are a lot of (g)estimates here, so I’ll set out the assumptions clearly.
a) Remplir unit value A$1,354 per unit (≈ ~US$950 at ~0.70 FX)https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025-10/prescribed-list-of-medical-devices-and-human-tissue-products.xlsx.
b) Incremental gross profit per unit: A$947 incremental gross profit per unit (i.e., 70% gross margin on A$1,354)This implies A$406 incremental cost per unit (30% of A$1,354).Note: OCC has not disclosed Remplir unit COGS or gross margin per unit publicly and refuses to supply it.
c) Core addressable global population: 1.7B “high-quality healthcare / payer-able” addressable population that have or expected to be have been approved (USA,Canada,EU, UK etc) . Though there are around 2.8B globally middleclass who currently can access high quality health care ( eg India, China and other asian middle class cohorts)
d) Peripheral nerve repair procedure rate:2,006 /proc/million : Based on US ~700,000 peripheral nerve repair procedures annually (addressable framing) and US population 349M . Probably overstate other “first-world” regions if the US has higher trauma incidence, but the arithmetic is correct.
e) RARP procedure rate million/population:330 /proc/million: Based on US ~115,000 prostatectomies annually and a US population proxy of 349M. Proxy for global expectations. Probably a bit low but hard to guessimate certainly a growing area
f) Valuation benchmark (P/S multiple): 6x , COH Colear, 7.5x, Nanosonics 6.1x , PolyNovo 6.4, Resmed 7.1x (ASX), Boston Scientific 5.6x (NASDAQ), These companies it is assumed would also have similar 70% incrementals for per unit costs.
So what does this look like here we have 1% to 20% global penetration , note AU has 10-12% currently.
$400M of revenue ?
If RARP realword clinical outcomes show efficacy here is the outcomes, it would not be impossible to imagine 20% penetration on the bull case
So what would that mean for the share price.
If we can potentially hit 1% globally then a share price of $1.50 is plausable on Remplir sales alone.
The true bull case is if we hit 10% globally (same as Australia) then $12 share price is the true bull case.
Global bull case: ~1.5% global penetration implies a share price above A$2.00. If ; and it’s a big if and a big when ; if Orthocell can replicate Australian 10% penetration globally, the implied terminal share price around A$12 just for Remplir ?.
So when can we order our lambos ? (I’m not here for the Lambo fantasy I’m just posting the picture because it amplifies emotions of easy money, which 2025/26 holder Orthocell demostratively has failed dispite the company kick'n goals)
Bear case: The real-world evidence is there, Remplir works, surgical use is growing, because it works; no argument about that.
RARP clinical evidence will come soon fingers cross positive.
So great product, where is the problem?
The true bear case problem that of scale: Orthocell is a small company, based in perth ; one of the world’s most remote cities, trying to win in a huge global medical market with big walls and deep murky moats. Winning globally , distribution is the boss, not the greatness of the product. Global medical is a hard hard game of approvals for reimbursement, procurement, reliable trused distribution, training, opinion leader networks, and day to day embedded sales force that understand the way the business works by individuals who have been around decades. A great product cannot do it all. Otthocell IMHO has a extreme execution dilution problem.Whilst we all understand the #1 objective is winning the USA with Remplir, we are can also see the dilution that comes from this other jurisdictions get neglected, just as the market development for do the other products (CellGrow / Striate) that deserve more attention than they are getting.
That’s why I think OCC ultimately needs to get in bed with global partner with execution muscle. Yes, it likely costs 50%+ of the margin, but that’s a trade worth making: 5% of the global market in FY2028 at half the margin beats 1% going it alone
After all, doing the most good for the most people, as effectively and as soon as possible, is how Orthocell wins ; not just for greater good of humanity, but also for the people who provided the capital: the company’s true owners, the shareholders.
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