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  1. andrewk4

    1,368 Posts.

    Hi Rembrandt,
    Ive been reading a few of your threads, and had a few thoughts.
    Gotta agree that Chris Tembys book is the best in oz. I used it to construct my BSOPM in excel and back test it all.

    Trading volatility- surely if youve read Temby, youd agree that any straddle or strangle is not risk free? You are taking a view that vola will rise or fall, and that dictates whther you buy or write the strangle? As such they are not risk free, but "hedged trades". Not that Im any expert, I seem to be at about the same stage of learning as you.
    Im reading "when genius failed, the rise and fall of LTCM- by R Lowenstien" at the moment, and it has some fascinating insights into their strategies, which mostly involved straddles and strangles.
    Im just researching theories. Have only made about 3 trades in the last 12 mths now. Some of the greatest traders in the world never made a trade for several years, as they studied and researched before wading in.

    So Im just curious; when you see Imp Vola giving you a green signal, what time frame are you reading imp vola over? I hope you dont take the last option trade for the day from some newspaper and plug those numbers into your model. The last could have happened 30 mins before close and the underlying would have moved, giving you severe errors. So , if you can write a BSOPM, then I assume you foresaw this.
    So if you see a warrant trade happen live, or watch the spread and avge out what you can buy for right now, ( as I guess you might) then how do you know if imp vola is rising or falling???
    Youd need a datbase of all the cba warrants or etos for some weeks to make any judgement. Youd need to know EVERY trade that happened intra day and not just the last.
    How do you address this problem?

    The reason I ask, is that Im still having probs with my system. Excel runs a web query every 10 mins , but freezes after 8 queries.Duhhh. Happens even if I change servers too. I have the trading strategies in place now, and Im only looking at hedged trades ( yes, no more naked one sided trades) but I have no way of charting imp vola.

    Thanks for the commsec tip, Im now getting registered.
    Happy trades.

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