only the faithful?

  1. NT
    1,708 Posts.
    Back Again!
    Great camping break - lost in the wilderness.
    Bush tucker, thinner and fitter, and all the rest!
    The best being not involved in the day to day listing of Anvil in Canada!

    So aspirations, hopes, expectations - and “prognosis” regarding Canada listing were not fulfilled!
    “Congo Fear-ver” infected would be investors!

    Never mind!
    The positive predictions based on company analysis still stand.

    As far as Anvil - the company - is concerned nothing has changed.
    Nothing has changed!

    Stage 2 is close to completion. (slightly delayed? - Unusual for Anvil not to be ahead of time, etc)
    A potential additional mine likely - if advertisement for replacement mining manager is any indication.
    Profits to take off over the next few months.

    What has changed is market perception.
    Congo Fear-ver has obviously put Anvil into a no go investment/speculation area.
    (Is there a “Buy straw hats in winter” comment ringing?)

    From past items there may have been -
    1. Insurrection in Congo capital. (poorly backed, flimsy in nature, doomed to fail?)
    2. An attempt break out by rebel soldiers. (Negotiated away by UN peacekeepers? Congo army very popular in moving in?)
    3. Border dispute. (negotiated away?)

    Short term problems leading to long term solutions?

    Probably!

    That’s my prognosis.

    The positive expectations for Anvil have been based on well reasoned positions.
    Congo fear-ver has upset the positive expectations - short term.

    Mind wasn’t it Miningnut? who suggested Anvil price could crash to single figures - should the interim president be assassinated?
    A drop in share price to a low of about 30 cents does not seem so bad?

    So as far as Anvil company is concerned nothing has changed!

    Market perceptions and the fear factor have changed.

    Expect the share price to continue to be undervalued for some time now.
    Investors will continue to insist on “show me the money” first and foremost.

    Anvil profits must lead the way.
    Investors must see a long term income stream - Dikulushi reserves, or a new mine.
    Company management of profits needs to be delineated - payment of dividends or capital investments which lead to longer term future and increased profits.

    For the time being share price is likely to lag value by a large percentage.

    A time will come when Anvil will once again be “discovered”.
    Will loom strong in investors eyes.
    Will break into new price horizons.

    At this stage there is nothing Bill Turner or anyone else can do to turn market perceptions - Anvil market valuation around.

    Sovereign risk?
    Tis in the eye of the beholder.
    Recent perturbations have caused a perception of high risk for would be Anvil investors.
    Understandable!
    As stated previously - short term problems (hiccups?) lead to long term solutions.
    None of the so called “problems” (recent unrest) appear to be of a draconian nature.

    Remember - buy straw hats in winter.

    Patience will be rewarded.

    Cheers,

    NT





 
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