CCE 20.0% 0.4¢ carnegie clean energy limited

on the back of an envelope

  1. 22,691 Posts.
    1. Introduction.
    Mr Jordansen said the company is committed to having a market presence in Europe by 2004 and is currently in discussions with potential distributors. “We are currently training European staff to service between 10 and 15 distributors who already visit plastic and cosmetic surgeons. This may also have benefits for CellSpray®, which is expected to be launched late 2003 in Europe.”

    “During a recent three week visit to Europe I had the personal experience of speaking to several potential distributors and the level of interest was as solid and large as we had expected.” Mr Jordansen said the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed C3"

    2. Tax losses.
    $17.7 mill on Dec. 31, 2002; add $4 mill. say a total of $22 mill. to Dec.31, 2004.

    3 Method.
    I'll use a heavy discount of 20% to be conservative and a P/E of 20. What then is the NPV on 31 Dec. 2003?

    Profits in the current year wil be zero. In the year to Dec 31, 2004, I expect some $6 mill.; in the 2005 year $14 mill. and the year to Dec 31 2006, some $ 21 mill.

    After that, there will be a significant lift as the projected approval in the US is expected later in 2006. So, marketing costs per unit are then expected to come down fast.

    It is also at this point that a reasonable penetration in the world is expected. However, I omitted the 2007 and following years. There will be some options due in 2004 /5 and I have added 6 mill. shares to the $156 mill to achieve a total of some 162 mill shares.

    Based on those data, I would expect a share price between 59 cents and $1.39 on 31 Dec. 2003.

    Much depends on the quality of the Announcements to be made before 31 Dec. 2003 and the efficient penetration of markets.

    That is my opinion.

    Share investment carries risk and this post is not an invitation to buy, hold or sell any stock. Please do your own research before making a decision.

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