LYC 1.41% $1.75 lynas corporation limited

Odds of LYC cashflow neutral this Qtr

  1. 6,947 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 63
    Lets look forward for a change.

    The forecast Mar Qtr spend is $65 mil ( see LYC report)

    Last Qtr LYC sold 20i4 ton of product for $41.1 mil or an average of $20.40/kg

    We have been told that REE price for LYC has dropped (lets assume 5% for the Mar Qtr vs the Dec Qtr)

    Now lets see how much production is needed for the March Qtr for LYC to break even.

    The sum should look like:

    2014 x 1.05 x 65 divided by 41.1

    Thats: 3344 kgs or 594 ton above PH1 nameplate production.

    for those who are saying that LYC's March quarter is going to be either break
    even or cashflow positive then you may have to think again.

    To break even, IMO, LYC has to lift Mar Qtr sales by 29.5% in volume which is a big ask, IMO.

    Cheers to all and have a great Valentines day tomorrow.
    Moorookamick
 
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