2.58% \$29.86 clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

# now for some maths...

1. 158 Posts.
According to Epitan's website the US market for solarium use is \$8 Billion a year. So I guess that world wide solarium use would be say...\$20 Billion. Lets say that the fake tan industry is about \$4 Billion a year.

That makes \$24 Billion that people spend on tanning each year worldwide.

Considering that melanotan will is a vastly superior product to either solariums or fake tans, lets be conservative and say that Epitan will take say 30% (I reckon it will end up being close to 100%) of this \$24 Billion. This equals \$7.2 Billion.

And there will heaps of people that would like a tan but wont risk cancer for it- say another \$3 Billion.
Total income = \$10.2 Billion

Lets say they pay their JV partner \$2.2 Billion for manufacturing and distribution.
That leaves \$8 Billion

Minus \$1 Billion for costs (stationary, toilet paper, coffee and tea for the tearoom and Office parties)
Leaves \$7 Billion. Subtract 30% company tax
Leaves \$4.9 Billion

When companies become cashflow positive they do one or more of the following:
1) Reinvest the profits into expansion or further R & D. (Smart companies get >\$1 for every dollar reinvested and dumb ones get <\$1 for every dollar invested.
2) Reward the share holders (dividends)
4) Rape and pillage the company- then piss off to Spain.

Lets assume that buy this stage the company will have issued another 40 million shares - bringing the total number of shares to about 150 million. If \$4 Billion gets returned to share holders (with \$900 million in bonuses for the lab rats and directors) that means a annual dividend of \$26.67 per share!

At say a 8% yeild that makes a share price of \$333. If they take 60% of the market that makes \$667 per share. Someone please slap some sense into me!
I think the figures I have used are huge but not unrealistic.
Have I missed anything? Any comments?

.....Assuming the trials work!

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