HDR hardman resources limited

Nothing surprises mw with HDR anymore

  1. 16,067 Posts.
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    Hi all

    I've been at the beach since the weekend and just checked the HDR news and HC tonight. From what I can see, there are several main reasons why the share price is in decline:

    1) The market did not get the definitive news it was expecting on Tuesday, and it got conflicting news from WPL and HDR. So, this caused some anxiety and some traders (mostly the T+3 traders?) got nervous, and perhaps had to sell by today (Wednesday).

    2) Given the poor market response to Banda, the somewhat disappointing placement, and the fact that the next well (Thon) is relatively small, the market is focussed on Ching4 proving up a commercially viable 100mbbl plus. Any drilling information that could be seen to question this viability (rightly or wrongly) is going to make everyone nervous. If Ching is not a goer the future of the whole project will look a bit ordinary - and there will be a rush for the exits. In other words given the less than inspiring results to date, the market is viewing Ching 4 results as make-or-break. So I guess some people are going for safety, because the market reaction to less than expected Chinguetti reserves will be overdone. Fair enough too - I'm nervous (even with Ted's assurances !).

    3) The wildcard that keeps haunting me is the US attacking Iraq. This could well stop the drilling program or at least slow it up. And remember that it was the fact that Mauritania sided with Iraq in the Gulf War that saw the exit of US oil companies from Mauritania - thus allowing little ol Hardman to get in there at all. I hope I am wrong on this one - but it does concern me.

    Any opinions on these ideas - or alternative ideas?

    I believe that HDR should bounce on good news but in the current market and with Bubbya looking to hit Iraq, nothing would surprise me.



    Its a hard game riding Hardman !
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