NO such thing as Climate Change?

Originally posted by Owenlee: ↑

That AI overview is a slick piece of narrative polishing, but it glosses over the core issue with the Shakun 2012 paper and the whole "CO2 as primary driver" story.
Let's dismantle it:

The Shakun et al. study (and similar paleoclimate reconstructions) still shows "CO2 lagging temperature changes" in the Antarctic ice core data by centuries—often 800+ years. That's not a minor "nuance"; it's a fundamental problem for claiming CO2 is the main driver during natural deglaciations. The paper tries to spin this into a "two-step process" where Milankovitch orbital cycles start the warming, oceans outgas CO2, and then CO2 "amplifies" it globally. But this is circular reasoning dressed up as science:

Real-world observations undermine the alarm:- Satellite lower troposphere temps (UAH/RSS) show modest warming since 1979 (~0.14°C/decade), with pauses and slowdowns, not the accelerating catastrophe predicted by many models.- Sea level rise has been steady at ~3 mm/year for decades—no acceleration matching the CO2 rise.- Climate models run hot: They overestimate tropospheric warming, especially in the tropics, and fail to hindcast/predict things like the 1940s–1970s cooling or the post-1998 "hiatus."- Greening of the Earth: NASA’s own data shows increased vegetation from higher CO2— a clear benefit, not just "plant food" spin.

Shakun 2012 didn't "refine" our understanding—it massaged the data to fit the narrative that CO2 is in the driver's seat. True science would emphasize uncertainties in paleoclimate proxies, the dominant role of orbital forcing + ocean dynamics, and that modern CO2 increases (from ~280 to 420+ ppm) have coincided with beneficial warming, not disaster. No unprecedented rate, no tipping points materialising, Arctic ice not vanished, polar bears thriving, etc.

Bottom line: CO2 has a logarithmic effect (diminishing returns per added ppm). We're likely seeing mild, mostly beneficial warming with human emissions as a contributor—but not the control knob for climate. The "consensus" AI summary here is advocacy, not neutral analysis. Skeptics aren't denying climate changes; we're denying the hype, the failed predictions, and the policy panic that treats a trace gas as an existential threat while ignoring adaptation, nuclear/energy abundance, and real environmental priorities. If the data truly showed catastrophe ahead, why the constant adjustments, cherry-picked proxies, and suppression of dissenting papers? Follow the evidence, not the press releases...

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From you...your first point....seems you are mistaken

Ai Overview
The Shakun et al. study (and similar paleoclimate reconstructions) still shows CO2 lagging temperature changes in the Antarctic ice core data by centuries—often 800+ years

The 2012 study by Jeremy Shakun and colleagues (and subsequent work) does acknowledge that regional Antarctic temperatures started rising before carbon dioxide (\(CO_{2}\)) at the onset of deglaciations. However, the study clarifies that this regional lag does not mean \(CO_{2}\) is not a driver of global climate, as the study shows that \(CO_{2}\) lagged global temperature change, but led the warming on a global scale.
Key nuances provided by the Shakun et al. study and related research regarding the \(CO_{2}\) lag include:
Antarctic vs. Global Temperature: The 800+ year lag is primarily observed when comparing \(CO_{2}\) to regional Antarctic temperature, which is often considered a "local" proxy, whereas the study constructed a global temperature record from 80 proxies.
Initial Trigger vs. Amplification: The initial, slow warming at the end of the last ice age was triggered by orbital cycles (Milankovitch cycles), which warmed the Southern Ocean and released \(CO_{2}\). This released \(CO_{2}\) then acted as a global amplifier for the rest of the deglaciation, with roughly 90-93% of the global warming occurring after the \(CO_{2}\) increase.
(CO_{2}\) Led Global Temperatures: When looking at the global average temperature, rather than just the Antarctic, Shakun et al. found that \(CO_{2}\) likely led global warming.
Reduced Time Lag: Further studies refining the timing, such as Parrenin et al. (2013) or updated analyses of the 2012 data, have suggested that the lag between Antarctic temperature and \(CO_{2}\) might be smaller than previously estimated—often less than 400 years, or in some cases, synchronous.
Interhemispheric Seesaw: The Antarctic warming first, followed by the global trend, is consistent with a "seesaw" of heat between the hemispheres triggered by ocean circulation changes, where the Southern Hemisphere warms first and the Northern Hemisphere is initially kept cold, with \(CO_{2}\) providing the uniform global warming mechanism.
Therefore, while \(CO_{2}\) did not trigger the very beginning of the deglaciation in the Antarctic, it is considered the primary driver of the overall global deglaciation, supporting its role as a key control knob for Earth’s climate.