Lots of info.
LANGFORD
• Important to differentiate between 'battery' grade and 'industrial' grade. Industrial grade demand has low growth and sufficient supply growth. Battery grade demand growth is massive and supply grwoth is limited.
• Emphasis on projects with low impurities for higher quality battery materials for new battery tech.
• Initial spike in Chinese domestic carbonate spot prices (2015-2016) due to big spike in 85-100K EV buses being built in China. Has come down since. I'm guessing those buses would be using low energy density battery tech.
• Recent Chinese subsidy changes pushing longer range/higher quality batteries = push for battery grade materials + more lithium
• Rapid EV growth Oct, Nov, Dec expected.
• Government banning of ICE vehicles results in people switching rapidly to EVs up to 7 years from deadline to avoid losing money of rapidly depreciating ICE vehicles. in host country
• Supply side uncertainties and delays are a given. Timelines often not met.
• Concentrate price holding up. High grade 6%+ concentrate getting US$1050/t, MIN $960, GXY $980 (5.7%). Higher grade, low impurity fetching better prices.
FERGUSON
* 27500m drilling complete. 4 drill rigs operation, 1 working on met test work. 42 drill holes in the resource estimate with only 31 having lab data. Finished 75th hole. Data should be out in 2-3 weeks. Only 900m of 12km sampled or single pegmatite. 99% done about 1000m to finish. So, AVZ have released only 31 of 75 holes data which means a significant resource upgrade coming up soon.
* MET testing in progress requiring 5 drill holes. 2 completed, 3 to go. 3 weeks to complete, then shipping to Australia for lab work.
* Hydro plant. Capacity of 64MW. $10 mil to refurbish one unit (2 x 9MW generators). 85% of historical transmission line is useable (interesting!). Mentions that dam has enough power (50MW) for carbonate plant which would require 45 mil upgrade to hydro plant. Coincidentally, I recall Dathomir and Cominiere were committed to spending US45M to rehabilitate this hydro dam (Dathomir has 10% stake in project + 13% in AVZ).
* No water problems.
* Transportation in studies going east to lake, barge to Kagoma and rail to port. SS come up with US$221/t current prelim transport cost. Talking to transporter, he believes this amount can be reduced 'by a substantiate amount'. Claims numbers are conservative.
* Environmental study acceptance usually takes 2 months
* Applying for a 5 or so year tax break as a 'special project' for the area.
* Good support locally from government (governor + federal mines minister)
* Construction 9 months. Commissioning aim Q2 2020.
* 8 million cash
* Very low iron and other unwanted contaminants fitting in with requirement for new generation of batteries. Simple mining. Tin credits to be included in Feasibility study.
* Feasibility study 9 months
* Belgians produced 6.8% concentrate. AVZ Expecting 6-6.5% after optimization.
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