NXS 2.03% $1.45 next science limited

nexus highly undervalued and why...

  1. 1,149 Posts.
    Here are my views on NXS that are based on current facts and research. Wish to debate, altenative views or differing calculations if they can substanciate with some factual evidence or commonsense. No hearsay pls...

    I would love to be convinced I am wrong, as you may save me near 50K. Thxs

    The question 'Is Nexus highly undervalued and why?'... IMO.

    1) 70++Mil PA now guaranteed from Longtom revenue from the 27th Oct 2009. Valuation upgrade puts Longtom worth 344Mil. Greater than current MC with no more to pay going forward. Fact- Bell Potter Securities report, Agreement with Santos!!! Given valuation of Longtom value alone SP 31c +... Let's say 31c to be conservative.

    2) Crux is a valuable OIL asset potentially worth billions. 65MMbl worth. See link to Bell Potter report below. With 85% ownership and at current value of 850Mil that is nearly x3 MC of 330Mil. This value at least worth an extra 45c to $$++ - IMO. Say 45c to be conservative.

    3) Cash in bank = $60 Mil (That is 17.7c per share)

    4) Market Cap = $339Mil Curent

    Sub Total = 93.7c conservative YET I have not calculated liabilities...that we MUST substract.

    5) Less debt of 225Mil and potential settlement in a legal dispute of say 60 Mil liability MAX to be paid. (SP= -26c).

    Total = 67.7c conservative - IMO

    Quote from bell potter brokers whom are more conservative in value pricing than MOST (Report is worth a look in detail)....

    "NXS is an undervalued asset play, which we conservatively value at $0.52. If
    management can execute a good deal on Crux, the valuation could exceed
    $0.75. The company has re-capitalised and successfully commissioned the
    Longtom gas field, providing a solid cash flow base of $70m pa for the next ten
    years+. We see very little downside risk from the current price level but a lot of
    upside potential."

    Come on SP this must be a bottom... Where is the LOVE. Currently unloved production and development oil\gas company-IMO.

    I am happy for it to make up nearly 6% of my portfolio, thus my limit with any small cap.

    Bell potter NXS detailed broker report link: https://www.belldirect.com.au/file.type?type=19&id=194

    Taking the Warren B viewpoint he looks at undervalued assets that currently are not loved and may take sometime for its true value to be noticed by the market... WHY is NXS unloved- IMO...

    1) Potential lawsuit by Sedco. Over the termination of the contract for drilling by Sedco. Whilst it looks highly disputable that Sebco will win any setlement. Let us factor in 70 MIL...

    2) Management have not negoitated ANY good deals for JV in the last year. With Crux and Longtom BUY IN by far bigger players opting out at the last minute due to GFC.

    3) Management not advising investors whether they have been approached to reharse these deals, leaving uncertainty.

    4) ST investors getting tired of waiting for some new news on Crux. Many investors not knowing that the one project to supply Santos for 10+ years is worth more than current SP alone. They do not need a JV partner for Longtom, it is done and money in the pocket from month to month.
 
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Last trade - 11.30am 05/06/2020 (20 minute delay) ?
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