TCL 1.14% $13.32 transurban group

You guys are basically saying no matter what happens to interest...

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    You guys are basically saying no matter what happens to interest rates or inflation, TCL is as good as gold correct?

    Not sure where you’ve read that?

    What I have been saying for quite some time on these threads is that, from a fair value perspective and for a given level of traffic volumes, TCL’s main sensitivity is to real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) long-term government bond yields.

    You can find a more in-depth explanation of that here: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/26462094/single

    Therefore, talking about the impact of nominal (i.e. inflation-unadjusted) rates or of inflation, in isolation, misses the point.

    On the other hand, arguing the existence of a correlation between inflation and traffic volumes could be a meaningful and interesting topic of debate, provided one has the hard data to back that argument.

    I have personally found no historical evidence that a higher rate of CPI inflation is conducive to lower traffic volumes (and even conceptually I don’t find that argument convincing), but, if you (or anyone else) have numbers that unequivocally point in that direction, I am happy to be proven wrong.
    Last edited by Transversal: 23/10/17
 
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