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AHZ 36.5¢

I have just finished... 20/03/2017, 23490030

  1. Eire2011

    848 Posts.
    I have just finished listening to the Admedus webinar (again!) That's the first time I have ever listened to a company presentation 3 times. However, when you are a focused and concentrated investor like me you have to know what you are investing in like the back of your hand. A passing knowledge is simply not good enough.

    So having listened again I thought I would summarise some of the announcements, developments and opportunities that may come our way before the end of the year or in the next 12 months. It's also a little follow up to my "Reasons to be positive" post when there was very few positive posts on HC.

    It also serves as a quick reference point and summary for those new to AHZ or those that don't have the time (or passion) that I have to dive into the company information.

    Some announcements are more imminent than others but who knows in what order they will come out or exactly when they will come, but come they will. Quarters used are calendar year unless specified as a FY Q) for ease. Please feel free to add to this list in case I missed something. They are in no particular order.

    * Update on Indian registration and approval progress.
    * Confirmation of Indian distributor
    * First sales into India (Q3)
    * Update on VascuCel and Neo sales progress (could be any day).
    * Update on the European restructure and "scaling back up" progress.
    * Update on large bulk orders received and multi year contracts for CC and VC both in US and a large outstanding contract with a Canadian institution (Could be released any day now).
    * An up date on our new National Account strategy for Adapt in the US.
    * The naming of our collaboration partner in RNA - Immuno Oncology and any financial terms that may or may not accompany that collaboration.
    * Initiation of our HPV head and neck cancer study.
    * Naming of the distributor for Mexico, Brazil and Argentina (who is personally known to our CEO).
    * First sales in Mexico (Q4)
    * Naming of the distributors for Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan that we are bring on at the moment.
    * Naming of the distributor for China who we are in talks with and who will help in the registration process.
    * Full HSV 2 results (Q2)
    * Potential partnership announcement to progress to phase 3 for HSV 2. (Anytime post final results announcement).
    * Further hospital contract announcements for the infusion business that we are in discussions on and awaiting pen to paper.
    * An announcement around any funding that may be required in the short term to bridge the gap while we get to profitability (best guess 3rd QRT FY 18 )
    * Some sort of M&A announcement (maybe in conjunction with the funding). I have no idea what this is but I feel that WP would not mention this at all if it was not seriously on the agenda. (Maybe late in the year).
    * FDA clearance for CardioCel 3D launch in the US
    * First human implant of CardioCel 3D (June 17)
    * First sales of CardioCel 3D (Q3).
    * Further approvals for the MENA region including Egypt and possibly some of the following this year - Kuwait, Iran and Iraq.
    * Completion of the TAVR prototype and news around a potential licence deal / interest with a major player.
    * TGA approval for CardioCel (Q4)
    * Appointment of a fantastic highly credentialed CEO - Oops that's already happened.
    * Potential update on the effectiveness of our new marketing campaigns.
    * Update on what product we are going to focus on next for the Adapt portfolio. We have 3 or 4 in the wings but just waiting on resources, the bedding down of new products and a better understanding of the new sales teams ability to implement it.
    * FY 17 4th Q results that will confirm the turnaround is real to the remaining skeptics in the market.
    * Full year results in September with new targets for FY 18 confirming profitability.
    * Receipt of our full R&D rebate in Q2
    * Possible news on GP margins hitting 70 to 75%
    * The introduction of reporting on our market share and monitoring this metric towards our 20/20 targets (will take another 2 QRTs of data - maybe starts from Q1 FY 18).
    * News around company sales reps gradually replacing the existing manufacturing reps over time.
    * 9 year non calcification data to be released.
    * News from Europe on planned product approvals and expanding indications (late in the year)

    Never before in 12 years of investing have I invested in a company that has so many things to look forward to. Many on HC know my views on this company and the opportunity I believe is currently before us so I am not going to repeat that now.

    Needless to say that a quick scan of the news flow to come in the next 12 months should indicate to those with a keen eye that we have a lot going for us that is not currently priced in.

    There are a myriad of healthcare stocks on the ASX and internationally that have little, if any, revenue and that are larger than us or in some cases multiples of our valuation. Some that come to mind include NEU, IPD, RVA, and OSP. AHZ is not one of these stocks.

    We are currently priced for future failure and or an impending CR and IMHO neither of those scenarios will happen. I have always said we have a very fast horse but we just didn't have the right jockey. We now have that Jockey and we are turning the corner and hitting the straight.

    Exciting year(s) ahead.

    DYOR and Not advice

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