ncp on downward journey...

  1. 436 Posts.
    Hi kiddies,

    NCP has at least another $1.00+ down to go yet, maybe a lot more...

    The chart shows NCP in a corrective 3-wave movement from $8.44 (26 July 2002) to $13.02 (2 December 2002) against a downtrend from $28.00 since March 2000.

    From 2 December 2002, NCP appears to have traced a 5-wave impulse down to $9.19 on 11 March 2003. This "impulse" did not get below the start of the prior corrective wave at $8.44, so if it is an impulse, then there's at least one more downward impulse of similar magnitude to come.

    After $9.19 on 11 March 2003, NCP went into an upward correction to a peak of $12.18 on 12 June 2003. We have a very clear indication that this corrective wave completed on that date because it traced out an ending diagonal to that point - a 99.9% reliable declaration that "the current waveform is about to turn".

    Now NCP has very nearly completed a clear 5-wave impulse down from $12.18 on 12 June 2003. There should soon be an upwards correction, clearly identifiable against this downwards 5-wave impulse. When that happens, expect another downwards 5-wave impulse to start.

    There are three possible targets that I can see for NCP's downward trend since $12.18 on 12 June 2003. The first assumes that the downward move between 2 December 2002 and 11 March 2003 was a 5-wave impulse. In this case, the target for the current trend is somewhere below - probably well below - the start of the correction at $8.44 on 26 July 2002.

    The second possible target assumes that the downward move between 2 December 2002 and 11 March 2003 was a corrective wave, and not a 5-wave impulse (this could be argued on the basis of the MACD and RSI patterns during that period). In this case, NCP may actually be tracing out a large 4th wave triangle in the downtrend since $28.00 in March 2000, starting at $8.44 on 26 July 2002 and encased within the converging orange lines. If this is correct, then the target would be the lower orange line, ie, ~$9.75 at the moment.

    The third possible target is the lower orange line (ie, ~$9.00 at the moment), which assumes that the original correction since $8.44 on 26 July 2002 hasn't finished yet, and the move down since $13.02 on 2 December 2002 has simply been a correction of the correction, with a final move up beyond $13.02 yet to come.

    Bottom line - NCP still has at least ~$1.00+ down to go. Any thoughts would be welcomed.


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