MTM Chart, page-4050

Where is the low?
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From a weekly perspective, MTM did not have a good week. Another one. Like last week. This is what I wrote last 2 weeks. So now we should have understood the trend. The drop was similar to last week, around 15%. So last 3 weeks, 10/%, 15%, 16% drops. Brutal. Moved from 84 to 70. And from high of 146 to 66.5 - massacre.
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So what is happening? We are in a strong downtrend with no signs of significant support to confirm any reversal. We don't know the reason of sell, but we can look at numbers. And they are not good. Unfortunately, they do not confirm if we may have the seen the low of this phase.
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So what may possibly be happening? Last week I went thru different scenarios, so will not repeat it. If I had to make a guess - a combination of

• Profit taking by early big players,
• Some play by Mitsi who because of the size of holding can direct narrative to certain extent
• Overall market is generally down in the spec play
• Nervousness by some as we get closer towards a key announcement
• And most importantly - no price sensitive announcement in over 3 weeks (except quarterly) - unprecedent in last few months. These announcements have been the backbone of holding the price, or moving it up. Last 3 weeks no announcements. Last 3 weeks, big drops. There is a co-relation

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So what are the numbers? These are the numbers I wrote last week, on decline, and nothing has changed. So copied it.
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• First 73/74 - very critical area. When we first came to 70s, we reached 73. Then we dropped to 59. Then we reached 74. Then we dopped to 54.5. Also, 73/74 was 50% drop from our recent high of 146 and all time high of 148.5 - so a very critical number.
• Second - around 60/61 - first zone of support if lose 70s based on previous patterns
• Third - 54/55 - The final, final support. If we reach here and not able to hold, that means fundamentally something very wrong. A 50% drop to 73/74 itself is calling that fundamentally something wrong, but techinicals can adapt to 50% play.

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So how did the low numbers play/ We lost 73/74, we reached 66.5. So in between for now. So my numbers remain - same as last week - 53-54/60-61/73-74/90-91/100-101/115-118/136-138/1480-150/170-180.
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So its all doom and gloom at this stage, is there any hope? Since we reached 146, there has been 16 trading days and only 2 green days. That tells the story. There are no clear signs yet of reversal. If I was a new entrant, I would wait for confirmation. So any hope? Very little, but possible. Two possible hopes -

• Volume this week was much lower than average. Only one day we did over 10m shares, rest around 4/5. When declining, lower volume may be better.
• Last 3 days we dropped each day. But percentage of drop is getting lower from before. But most importantly, the lower number is getting higher - 66.5/68/69. Today was 69. So we are doing slightly higher lows. Nothing significant but sometimes an indicator of bottoming. The buyers are stepping up each day. A very positive play. When there has been obvious play to push it down. Now its saying -the risk/reward is good here - no more pushing down.

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Personally I played MTM every day this week. With a portion of my holding. Because the stock was trending down, sold on strength and bought on weakness. Blindly. Only when trend reversal is confirmed, I will change my approach to play the opposite. Last week I wrote my average was 89. Thru some buy and sells and lucky play to follow and accept what is happening, have reduced my average to 81. So significantly down on closing price of today, based on a large number I am playing. This is my 5th big play in MTM last 1 year. And I am feeling the same, if not more pressure, when it dropped from 30 to 12. My last 4 plays were very positive. I hope, the law of averages is not playing against me.
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So what may happen next week? There is no confirmation yet that we may have bottomed. So we don't know. I have a gut feel, and based on history, that we may get a price sensitive announcement next week. There ahs been 13 price sensitive announcements in last 12 weeks. Except for quarterly, none in last 3 weeks. We are in a for a due. At this stage, as I have repeated written, it may not be negative. We need that. Otherwise, the play in last 3 days, there is a strong indication that slowly the big sellers are losing ammo - as we saw last 3 days we did higher lows. That's our second best bet. That big sellers dry up. Third, if general market is behaving well, it will help us as well. At this stage, I am not that confident about that. Finally - what's my gut feel? Because I am holding big, I may be biased, so factor that in - My gut feel is that we are bottoming here. Big time. Based on trading patterns and my observations across 100s of stocks that I observe and many I write on. Its a percentage play. No guarantee. No confirmation. But to play at this end of the market, sometimes, you need to with your gut feel. Sometime take calculated risks. And mostly, you need luck. Lets hope the lady luck is on our side. All the best.