ZFX zinifex limited

minor update

  1. 2,020 Posts.
    If anyone is interested I calculate that according to my 6.4% rule the following apply.

    1. Selling pressure at present begins at 4108 UK. Compare to http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/commodities/default.stm

    2. By the 25.11.06 the selling pressure point will have reached 4382.

    3. My target for gross stocks using this method a week ago was 163,480 vs an actual recorder number of 115,650.

    4. The available for sale (on warrants) target was 112,902 vs an actual of 86,600.

    5. Stability is now upgraded to 3858. That means that in the event of a pullback this is bottom before zinc buyers in number will move in.

    However, given the strong drawdown and the sentimental effect of now being below copper, I think even my data is becoming somewhat less useful. The selling points still work, so we will have to see if high prices really do slow down demand. Each time there is a pullback the bottom gets further and further away from being reached and note that until the next selling point upgrade is reached on 25.11.06 that the one stated above '4115' will increase slightly from day to day as numbers drawdown and confidence returns. You can calculate it daily by dividing a 6.5% increase over a month /31 for example. Its not always spot on but a good guide. The same applies for stability points.

    I also have read a lot from various sources predicting that zinc prices will return to normal mid next year. I seriously doubt that and don't see any let up until at least mid 2008. Many haven't sat down and actually calculated Chinese consumption and ability to bring online new production. Plus the Eurozone is entering a period of economic growth, which will offset to a degree a slowdown in the US.

    That's all for me. If anyone is interested or has questions you can email me at [email protected] and I can send you a free one pager of historical data tables in a simple format for the past few months on zinc and a daily trading plan with the best stocks to trade CFD's etc after this pullback (if your a bull of course).

    Happy puntings.
 
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