GOLD 0.20% $1,229.1 gold futures

men in black

  1. 67 Posts.
    The Man Behind the Curtain
    Among the day's most noteworthy rumor was that the Federal Reserve was convening an "emergency meeting" to deal with the market's meltdown in general and J.P. Morgan's derivatives exposure specifically.

    A spokesman for the Fed did not return phone calls seeking comment (not that I expect it would have commented, anyway). Late Tuesday, Adam Castellani, a J.P. Morgan spokesman, called and said the rumors were "completely untrue and irresponsible."

    At the end of 2002's first quarter, the notional value of derivatives contracts involving U.S. commercial banks and trust companies was $45.9 trillion, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's bank derivatives report.

    The OCC noted seven commercial banks accounted for almost 96% of the total notional amount of those derivative contracts, which are complex financial instruments that are used to hedge risk against and/or increase leverage to movements in various financial assets. J.P. Morgan Chase is far and away the most active participant in the derivatives market, with involvement in $23.2 trillion, or 50.5% of the total. ("Notional value" is the total value of the contract, and J.P. Morgan's direct exposure to those derivatives was $51 billion as of Dec. 31, or less than 1% of the notional value, according to the firm. About 80% of the company's exposure was with investment-grade counterparties.)

    For some time now, years literally, the hard-core bears have been talking about a "sum of all fears" scenario involving J.P. Morgan's exposure to derivatives in general, and bearish bets on gold in particular.

    Today, the price of gold fell 3.4% to $312.60 per ounce, its lowest close since July 8, while the dollar rallied sharply vs. the euro, which fell below parity to 98.62 cents vs. yesterday's close of $1.0080. The dollar also rallied against the yen, and the dollar index rose 1.95 to 107.08.

    Given the greenback has recently been moving in the same direction as equities (i.e., down), while gold has been trading inversely (although more sideways-to-down of late), today's movements were somewhat curious.

    Indeed, a person given to conspiracy theories might surmise the Fed did convene a meeting today and decided to intervene to boost the dollar and weaken gold in order to help alleviate pressure on money-center banks, such as J.P. Morgan and Citigroup.

    However, Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, doubted such a scenario was unfolding.

    "I don't want to say it's impossible, but it's unlikely," Wieseman said. "I doubt there's intervention going on. If the government were going to intervene [in the currency markets] , that's something they would want to announce." (Indeed, in 1998, then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin made sure everybody knew the Treasury was intervening to support the yen.)

    Furthermore, Wieseman said Morgan Stanley's fixed-income team believes the U.S. government is unlikely to intervene as long as the euro is under $1.05, and that it might not act if a move to those levels or higher was orderly and gradual.

    I'd called Wieseman to discuss a recent report he'd penned which sought to debunk rising speculation that the Fed is intervening the equities markets. I've noted such speculation repeatedly, and Wiesman said Morgan Stanley was increasingly getting similar inquiries from clients, especially from overseas.

    "I think it's pretty clearly illegal for the Fed to be doing it," the economist said. "No one in the government is directly buying stocks."

    Wieseman cited Section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act, which "specifically identifies the types of securities the central bank is allowed to buy and sell." These include Treasuries, agencies, short-duration munis, bankers' acceptances and gold. In 1962 the Fed was given authority to buy and sell currencies as well.

    I wanted to share this with readers who've asked about the rumors, but I seriously doubt this information is going to disabuse some from the notion that various forces are trying to manipulate the financial markets.
 
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