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melbourne presentation

  1. 499 Posts.
    Attended the Melbourne presentation, it went for about 1.5 hours and Pete Smith certainly did present well and with good clarity.

    Here are some of the more interesting points he made that have not been discussed on this forum:

    ACS indication approval and Arixtra could have the potential to grab an extra 10% of the heparin market, $US500M, and patents or not ACL will get its generic share, cant control the system working as it does, this point has been raised on this forum. So huge potential.

    Oral fondaparinux is being done by ACL on it's own, DRReddy has no involvement as partnership contract excludes them. Bio availability testing will only take 3 to 6 months and cost up to $1.5M. Current absorbtion at 10% and obviously the testing will look to increase this to an economically viable absorbtion rate. He expressed the benefits of the clinical development via the 505 and referencing existing data. If successful in testing through knee replacements for example they would not need to test through hip replacements etc. Also GSK are not attempting to develop an oral, cant do it as cheap apparently, their process is not as flexible. He was very positive about this whilst he did not talk numbers the potential is enormous and we will have news quickly.

    He spoke about HyACT enhancing the killing of cancer stem cells by 40%, this will also be tested in the first half 2010.

    He was really highlighting the value in the other programs and their potential to act as share price catalysts next year, hence the reason for the raising to get these programs moving.

    He was questioned on his valuation of the company, his response was more than interesting, remember he was a biotech analyst in Europe, with UBS I think. On current Fondaparinux numbers he believes there is $2.00 a share there. He has a current DCF of $US100M for HA-Ir phase 3, this would obviously increase as the trial progressed. He used the usual examples of comparable American companies and their market caps, one day maybe.

    So with FDA approval he thinks the shares are worth at least $2.60, throw in growth of fonda, oral fonda, HA-Ir, cancer stem cells and he believes the shares could be $10 in four years.

    His key point was that fonda will provide the financial security but the real growth/potential is in the underlying programs.
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