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mchugh and his 214 week cycle

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    McHugh has suggested that there is a 214 week cycle that might lead to a top in 3 weeks time.

    He may be right but my studies are mixed. Here are some of my observations looking at SP500 back to 1950.

    In the current example he is not using the lowest low of 1998! That's OK though as it was an important low.

    Years 53 to 57 lows were 214 but the following top was 216 from there but the next top was 214 again and 217 (double top). That's not bad. So it's worth watching approx.

    Then there was 82 86 90 94 and 03 lows all within a few weeks or 214 lows.

    70 74 and 87 were exact on 227 weeks for lows.

    74 84 90 98 and 02 were almost exact on 209 weeks.

    98 02 and 06 were spot on at 203 weeks.

    That 06 low in June was also confirmed by exact low in 02 04 and 06 by 96 weeks..

    June 06 again confirmed by exact lows in 03 04 and 06 by 85 weeks.

    I don't study cycles in US markets as a rule but that triple confirmation of June 06 means it was an important low and in hindsight one I wish I had looked for. No wonder the down move was sharp.

    In summary, 214 weeks approx has been significant more than random chance but there is nothing to suggest it as a high anymore than a low and it may be an approximation. There have been other cycles around 4 years in length that have been more meaningful at times.

    There would have been a stack of charts to post them all so you can do your own if you wish.

    214 weeks is 1498 cal days so 1500 might be the exact number!
 
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