APT 3.58% $23.75 afterpay touch group limited


  1. 93 Posts.
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    Please stick to investing in traditional industrial companies that you are use to. Technology business evolve very differently to what you are use to. Just take a look at a few successful compnies from the NASDAQ to see this evolution. 
  2. rab
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    Afterpay Touch (APT) Chasing Growth Recommendation Buy (unchanged) Price $14.45 Target (12 months) $21.59 (previously $23.05) Analyst Lafitani Sotiriou 613 9235 1668 Authorisation TS Lim 612 8224 2810 GICS Sector Software and Services Expected Return Capital growth 49.4% Dividend yield 0.0% Total expected return 49.4% Company Data & Ratios Enterprise value $3.9bn Market cap $3.6bn Issued capital 248.6m Free float 77.9% Avg. daily val. (52wk) $18.9m 12 month price range $4.70-$23.00 Price Performance BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED U.S. Sales Already ~9% of Total We estimate that the U.S. sales for the September quarter was ~9% of the total, and we forecast it will finish FY19 with ~18% of total in the June quarter-19. This robust start in the U.S. market is ahead of our expectations, and shows broad growth with already 300,000 active users, with growth tracking around ~80,000 a month and accelerating. Our forecasts for the U.S. remain relatively subdued on a sales trajectory, however we remain cautious given the short-period of history provided, in addition to the limited data in the current update. Further, the company appears to be chasing growth, at lower margins than what is being experienced in the Aust. and as such we’ve accounted for this in our estimates. We continue to believe the APT share price will follow the customer and revenue growth, until greater scale is achieved. U.S. Update Highlights  Sales of A$115m YTD, which compares to the A$32.1m previously reported;  US active clients up to over 300,000 as at 31 Oct 18, vs. 150,000 in Aug18;  US Live Merchants up to over 900 vs. 400 Aug18, and  Merchants signed and waiting to go live now at 1,300. Earnings revisions Following APT’s business update, we have upgraded our underlying closing customer assumptions by between 2-4%, while we have downgraded our cash EPS by -50.1%, - 37.6% and -34.3% for FY19, FY20 and FY21 respectively. We note that our Customer Lifetime Valuation (CLV) based methodology prioritises customer growth over expansion cost, particularly where gross margin and retention rates are healthy. However, despite this preference to customer growth, there is overall a net-drag on our valuation based on the only moderate customer growth changes, versus meaningful EPS adjustments to better account for the US and UK expansion costs. Following the changes our Price Target has decreased to $21.59 per share (previously $23.05) with our Buy recommendation remaining unchanged. Absolute Price Earnings Forecast Year end June 30 2017° 2018 2019e 2020e Sales revenue ($m) 22.9 113.9 201.2 325.4 EBTDA (Adjusted) (A$m) 3.9 27.7 38.9 73.1 NPAT (reported) (A$m) -9.6 -9.0 -6.7 16.7 NPAT (adjusted) (A$m) 0.9 8.9 9.3 32.7 EPS (adjusted and fully diluted) (cps) 0.5 4.0 3.8 13.2 EPS growth (%) na Large -4.3% 245.7% Adjusted PER (x) na 363.2 379.5 109.8 Price/CF (x) -49.4 -26.6 33.1 288.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 995.6 142.0 101.1 53.8 ROE (%) 1% 5% 4% 11% BELL POTTER S
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$23.38 $23.84 $22.94 $47.96M 2.034M

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No. Vol. Price($)
1 11663 $23.73

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Price($) Vol. No.
$23.75 12237 3
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Last update - 16.10pm 24/04/2019 (20 minute delay) ?
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