A2M 1.13% $6.25 the a2 milk company limited

Hi @Timba66 Great post. SPIRT the SP I should have been more...

  1. 55 Posts.
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    Hi @Timba66

    Great post.

    SP

    IRT the SP I should have been more clear. I still keep an eye on it but I know it is only a matter of time until the fundamentals are realised and then the SP goes all House Targaryen on the remaining shorters. Of course there is a short respite (pun intended), then the market will overreact on misinterpreted news, broker market manipulation or outside influences and so the cycle begins again.

    As the saying goes: “Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered”. Considering the fundamentals of a2MC I do not feel the need to get greedy so I stay a bull on this stock as I know it can swing pretty fast. Long-term holders will need to exit at some stage but I would always allow sufficient time, staggering of parcels or diversifying to mitigate risk as the time approaches.

    Supply Chain / Regulations

    You are correct IRT the lower margins/costs but I think it was a very well calculated move by a2MC. It offers a strong compromise for all the parties and it is easy to see why a company with the market share of a2MC would need to protect its principal market. Probably not the best terminology but the multi-channel strategy offers a bit of insurance and I’m happy for lower margins to provide more risk mitigation. It is a balanced option but again this is open to interpretation of how you understand the Chinese market as a whole.

    Increase in supply - Pokeno

    As you bought up supply to meet marketing we may as well discuss Pokeno. Does anyone on the forum have further information or reasonable assumptions on:

    - Covenant concerns – Oral hearing soon before appeal. Link below

    - Construction due to finish November?

    - 45MT capacity with land capacity for more? May have increased?

    - Initial expected supply FY20?

    - No SAMR Pokeno? Dunsandel more focused on China?

    Does anyone have further info?

    https://www.synlait.com/news/supreme-court-update/

 
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$6.25
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Last trade - 16.10pm 28/03/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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