LNG 0.00% 4.3¢ liquefied natural gas limited

This purposeful show of hand by GV says it all, the emperor is...

  1. 130 Posts.
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    This purposeful show of hand by GV says it all, the emperor is butt naked in all its slippery, unreliable glory, steeped in a rich tradition of failing to convert on milestones communicated to an angry mass of disgruntled plebiscites from our retail shores and some ring-ins and INSTO's from US of A.

    Whatever analogy you want to employ here - the business really isn't close to a BTA in China or elsewhere such as Europe as touted by LNG previously. I cannot recall offhand the last time they publicly quoted tolling fees - in actual fact when pressed at AGM's, they have been adverse to quoting fees. I can perhaps remember $2.75 being quoted a few years ago.

    Anyway, they are where they are, and we are still here moaning on hotcopper. They are dropping the proverbial dacks and trying to get whoever, before another 2nd stream LNG development picks off more buyers and reaches FID in record time. I don't disagree by the way with the tactic - it needs to happen and hopefully entices some more interest. In actual fact, I am little surprised at $2.35/mmbtu. I would have thought they would be at $2.25, particularly now with 8.8mtpa. I don't know how the premium on the Henry Hub goes to the revenue line, but working on $2.35 tolling and taking off opex $0.5, it is still sufficient to service senior debt (P&I) and Stonepeak freeloaders their preferred coupon, taking account of feed gas efficiency and a long term borrowing rate of 5%.

    This stock is a binary play on the China trade war now. Nothing else. You cannot believe that they will convert BTA's up against European trading houses, multi-national O&G players and even Cheniere's in-house marketing arm selling surplus volumes. Not going to happen. They should have got one of them years ago on the register but they didn't. Now you have to hope this IDG mob will work the karaoke bars hard in Shanghai with GV. Rock on, or not...
 
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