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LMR 5.7¢

likely to delist (part2)

  1. mnemonic

    5 Posts.

    There is also the matter (it does matter) of LMR coal block 4578.Note “...permit 4578 is where the coal-seams are at their shallowest and holds a material part of the Imaloto coal resource...”. This dispute seems to have already lasted an age. Last April, the plaintiff had 30days to lodge an appeal with the Tulear court, but the 30days start-date seems to have spanned many more months. LMR reported in Nov 2014, that an appeal had been lodged (and within the 30days!). The court-case resumes Mar 2015. As I recall, the plaintiff (having lost last time out) pays for the appeal, so is clearly serious about it. I wonder, would anyone really be that surprised, if this next episode in the ‘Never Ending 4578 Story’ goes against LMR? If it does, it is serious and you can probably kiss goodbye to 4c/share in the buyback. This 4578 affair would almost certainly be easier for a private company to resolve, behind closed (without public listed scrutiny) doors.

    Looking back over the period since the BMN ‘takeover’ lapsed, events concerning LMR do look very calculated. All justifiable, but all also consolidating BMN’s control. The share issue to directors (would have been even larger, had options 1-5 not been opposed/withdrawn).The timing of Azure’s capitulation last summer, allowing for BMN’s 3%(5%) creep (note the associated 6month caveat expires this month).The alignment of LMR’s reporting date with BMN. The share-buyback initiated once clear of the post takeover 12month period. An ‘end-game’ is definitely approaching and most certainly has nothing to do with returning cash to shareholders.

    Personally, I don’t believe BMN were ever committed to developing LMR’s coal, or IPP projects. While project progress does (in principle) add value, it has always really been all about LMR’s cash. No surprise then, that project/acquisition progress remains largely notable, only by its absence. Currently, BMN’s own share-price is under considerable pressure. BMN’s 2014 financing efforts were poorly done and damaged their shareholder base. They will again hit the financial buffers, in just a few months time. They have limited options. LMR’s cash must now be high priority. My guess is a delisting no later than mid-2015, then BMN loan-notes will be sold to LMR (or some other such funds transfer). I struggle to find any credible counter argument, to what seems like an inevitable (and rapidly approaching) outcome. Time IMO, for smaller LMR shareholders to move on. Perhaps some other, alternative investment, might actually have a future.

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