Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-6

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    "Yes if I gradually increase my cash levels to 30% over say the next 2 years, I will miss out on 30% of the euphoric last stage of the bull market."


    I seriously doubt if one can say that we have been in a bull market --

    it's actually been quite a steady rise and we have even topped the past ----- it's a long time between drinks

    if you look at the 20 year chart - for this to be a 'true' bull market - it's going to have to go on for quite a while yet and have a hell of a lot of activity before it ends.

    That said I do believe that Australia will enter a recession - I think it's pretty much a given - no matter who comes in as a new government. We have really been humming along on a fake economy - fake real estate prices providing lots of spare cash that will come back very very painfully as the chookies come home to roost in numbers - even the one's that have returned to the roost already are causing a lot of pain - I fear, we ain't seen nothing yet.

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