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latest usa ng projections

  1. 6,389 Posts.
    From Robry825:

    "Gas flows for last week were consistent with an injection of 44 BCF, which would be bearish against the baseline (36 BCF on 92 demand-days).

    Flows suggested 20% of operators increased injections over the previous week, 74% decreased injections, and 6% maintained the previous weeks activities. Flows also suggested 64% had net injections for the week, 30% had net withdrawals, and 6% were unchanged. As with last week, postings also suggested 8% of storage operators were full at weeks end.

    Model components were all similar to the gas-flow model, with the dailies also forecasting 48 BCF, downstream modeling 46 BCF, and capacity postings 41 BCF in estimated injections.

    There will be a much higher margin of error for the gas-flow model over the next few weeks, as we approach switchover (to withdrawals)- the time of year when pipelines sometimes divert scheduled injections and withdrawals to/from linepack (rather than burn compressor fuel to inject one week only to withdraw the next); and no-notice activities become more irradic and unpredictable.

    PIPELINE RECEIPTS MODEL: Throughput on several pipes decreased significantly last weekend, both in the east and to a lesser degree from western Canada. Given the proximity to November 1st (scheduling target of LDC's), uniformity in dropping pipeline receipts to dropping pipeline deliveries, availability of storage (only estimate 8% of operators are full), and softness in the cash markets, this has the appearence of a shift in thinking/scheduling of the LDC's rather than a full-storage-mandated slowdown (though other factors such as Canadian cold & increased liquids stripping are alternative explanations). How this unfolds (or winds down) in the midst of switchover will be interesting to follow.

    And to be sure- the stakes in here are enormous. If Canadian cold and/or liquids stripping is behind this, then we may be bottoming natgas right now. On the other hand, if it is LDC scheduling retargeting, then orphaned production goes searching for new demand in the cash markets and down we continue to go until that orphaned production either gets adopted or curtailed. But if I'm missing something and its all maintenance-related or just noise surrounding switchover, then it's all mute- and we continue the slow, volitale, nail-biting decline we've seen for the past few months.

    NEXT WEEKS EIA REPORT: With injecting slowed considerably, Gas flows suggest 9 BCF injected thus far (through Monday Night) puting us on track for a 20-30 week in next weeks EIA report as injection season slowly winds down."


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