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MLX 53.5¢

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  1. JID

    3,414 Posts.
    326
    Hi Guys,

    Latest numbers for various miners including MLX based on Q4 reports.

    Some notes on MLX below:

    Cash position deteriorated during the Q, largely due to a substantial dividend payment and capex. Still very healthy at $83m. Note for this figure I do not include the cash held by MLX relating the hedge that still needs to be delivered into (so actual cash is higher).

    I upgraded full year production from 150k oz (current FY15 guidance that ends 30/6/15) to 180k oz (current CY15 guidance that ends 31/12/15).

    I have not altered the Sn cash contribution for FY / CY 15 despite a possible +1kt Sn being produced this year. So potential upside here.

    I have added a LOM line (gold) which is determined by Reserves / Annual Production, ignoring resources. You'll note that MLX has a massive safety buffer with LOM across their various gold assets of 14 years, whilst investors are currently paying 3.3 years of AIC Free Cash Flow (before tax) to buy MLX. Some of this gap will be due to some of the reserves being held within the yet to produce CMGP that should start producing in 2H 2015.

    For me, MLX is the best value "gold" producer on the ASX (MLX also has an Sn operation that I treat as a adjunct). It is still very undervalued despite the recent SP moves because the AUD POG moves have more than offset this (i.e. the valuation ratio for EV / AIC Free Cash Flow has not materially changed).

    Table:

    Miner_Comparisons_Feb_2015.png

    Cheers
    John

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