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  1. JID

    3,420 Posts.
    328
    Latest comparative numbers for the miners that I am interested in, including NST now that all Q4 reports are in:

    Some notes re NST;

    Number of shares on issue increased slightly due to employee share plan issuances.

    Net cash position improved in the Q to +$84m. This, despite paying out a substantial dividend during the period.

    I have adjusted their p.a. production to 610k oz despite this being higher than their upper guidance (600k oz) as I believe the strong 1H will be improved upon in 2H due to Pegasus and Paulsens (moving into V2).

    Note that I have added a LOM line that is determined by Reserves / Annual Production. You'll see in NST's case that this is lower than the "EV / Post AIC Free Cashflow (before tax)" which indicates that there is no safety buffer investing in NST when looking at just the Reserves - i.e. only 2 years LOM whilst investors pay 3.37 years of AIC free cash flow to buy shares. Thus investors need to use a qualitative judgement regarding the current resources and their potential conversion to reserves along with the ability of NST to find more resources. At current prices the market is anticipating this to be the case.

    NST represents one of the best value for money gold producers at present, despite the strong SP performance. Investors can buy NST at just 3.37 years of AIC Free Cash flow (before tax) at current inputs. Only issue is short LOM based solely on reserves.

    Table:

    Miner_Comparisons_Feb_2015.png

    Likewise here is the latest Short Report. Nothing to see here. Shorts continue to bleed off NST at a steady, non-panicked pace:

    Short_Report_29_January_2015.png

    Cheers
    John

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