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BDR 5.1¢

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  1. JID

    3,414 Posts.
    326
    Hi Guys,

    Not much happening but I have updated my comparative spreadsheet re the miners now that the latest QR's are all in.

    I have tracked a few key areas. Where a number is in RED it has deteriorated whilst if it is GREEN it has improved since the last Quarterly Report.

    Some notes for BDR:

    Their nebt debt position (as I work it out) has improved but not as much as I was anticipating. This is largely due to (i) +$9m in non-sustaining capex for the Q that I was not anticipating, and (ii) the failure to complete their Duckhead mine plan during the Quarter and hit their 75k oz production target for the Q.

    I have upgraded their FY15 production target to 200k oz despite their official guidance being 170-190k oz. This is to add in additional oz from the Duckhead extension that is scheduled for mining in 2H (not included in official guidance).

    BDR's AUD AISC has deteriorated but this, I think, is simply due to the fall in the AUD vs. the USD as BDR has provided a stable USD AISC range.

    Exploration expense has improved slightly.

    Non sustaining capex has worsened as I did not have visibility of any capex required over and above an AISC level prior to this and have now accounted for it.

    I have added in a LOM figure for all miners based on Reserves / Annual Production. This does not attribute any value to resources but shows the safety level between "EV / AIC free cash flow" and the LOM.

    For example, in BDR's case the EV / AIC free cash flow" is 3.45 years whilst the LOM is 8 years, ignoring potential resources to reserves conversion. Thus, a good safety buffer for investors.

    Table below:

    Miner_Comparisons_Feb_2015.png

    Secondly, here is the latest Comparative Short Report (current to 29/1/15). Not much to see here. A steady and non-panicked decline in most ASX miners with the exception of MML and BDR that are experiencing a gradual increase. No red flags here though:

    Short_Report_29_January_2015.png

    Cheers
    John

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