PSA 0.00% 2.1¢ petsec energy limited

latest ng comment from robry825 on ng injections

  1. 6,389 Posts.
    Week Ending....Demand-Days.....EIA Change
    =========....==========....=========
    ...11/11/94.................93................+16 BCF
    ...11/03/95.................97................+13 BCF
    ...11/01/96.................92................+28 BCF
    ...10/29/99.................94................+10 BCF
    ...11/03/00.................91................+35 BCF
    ...11/09/01.................92................+35 BCF
    ...10/18/02.................89................+33 BCF
    ...10/24/03.................92................+34 BCF

    ...Baseline (Neutral)....92................+36 BCF

    ...Basepoint............................110.70 DD
    ...Baseline Slope Estimate.......1.925 BCF pr DD

    Todays Injection was neutral, with the EIA's reported 34 BCF injection just under the baseline (36 BCF), though at a time when the seasonal norm (on new heating demand) would be to beat the baseline by 6.5 BCF.

    Didn't quite get rid of the year-over-year deficit yet (now at 1 BCF from 62 BCF last week.

    The longer-term model's fall projection declines to 3163 BCF on 11/07 (was 3171 last week), and does so with one more injection of 19 BCF, then withdrawals of 5, 20, 34, and 56 BCF over the next 5 weeks (On demand-day estimates of 111, 125, 135, 142, and 152 respectively, all of which are seasonal averages).

    The year-over-year deficit elimination projection is next week (was 10/31/03 last week), with a surplus quickly building to 356 BCF by Christmas.

    The TCF year-over-year surplus projection moves back to where it was last week to 4/10/04 (was 3/14/04 last week).

    Spring 2004 storage projection edges up to 1597 BCF on 3/27/04 (was 1653 on 3/20 last week).

    Full storage (3.3 TCF) projection moves back one week to 8/21/04 (was 8/14/04 last week).

    Fall 2004 projection improved to a still an impossible 4139 BCF (was 4266 BCF last week), reflecting the present supply/demand imbalances.


    A POTENTIAL BULLISH BASELINE SHIFT? Baseline scores on the dailies have turned sharply bullish the last 6 days, though full-storage, linepack, and switchover issues all cloud the picture.

    As I mentioned in Monday nights post, pipelines often divert injections to linepack just before switchover (to withdrawals) then service subsequent withdrawals following switchover from that linepack- depressing injections (and improving baseline scores) just before switchover, then depressing withdrawals (and depressing baseline scores) just after switchover.

    In addition, colder weather is headed for Chicago (Natgas' largest market) over the weekend, prompting extra withdrawals to bring up linepack in preperation for anticipated heating demand.

    However, a sharp fall-off in pipeline receipts (see the dailies posts) hints at the possibility of something more serious, and slowing Canadian pipeline receipts (and sharply reduced canadian flows into the US on Kern) hint at baseline-slope steepening (as Canadians hold onto more of their winter flows for their own needs, forcing greater US dependance on winter storage). (Seems like every week the model increases that baseline slope estimate listed above).

    And all of these theories are about to be tested in Chicago this weekend! Will the baseline shift hold up? Will anticipated demand fizzle and push baseline scores back negative when the demand-days climb? As they say on TV- stay tuned!


    NEXT WEEKS EIA REPORT: Gas flows thus far (through Thursday night) are consistent with injections of 8 BCF, though that number has been backtracking and a break-even-type week wouldn't suprise me.
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.