Latest advances in air temperature (climate) modelling

  1. 744 Posts.
    Pat Frank and Dr Jing-Jia Luo have been plugging away for six years, navigating the painful and hostile world of peer-review, to have now succeeded in having their paper titled 'Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections, Mark II' published in the journal 'Frontiers of Earth Science: Atmospheric Science'

    Explanatory blog post
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ (contains links to actual published work and underlying data)

    Simple summary
    "Panel a: blue points, GISS model E2-H-p1 RCP8.5 global air temperature projection anomalies. Red line, the linear emulation. Panel b: the same except with a green envelope showing the physical uncertainty bounds in the GISS projection due to the ±4 Wm⁻² annual average model long wave cloud forcing error. The uncertainty bounds were calculated starting at 2006"

    Essentially the claim is that GISS projection (on the left, the basis for IPCC claims) have chosen to use the worst-case positive uncertainty and treated it as a projected outcome.

    Climate scientists the world over will no doubt be feverishly trying to remanufacture their preferred reality as we speak. Unless of course they don't lower themselves to the level of science these days.

    DYOR.
 
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