1. Most Discussed
  2. Gainers & Losers

junior oilers dec 7 part 1

  1. jocam9

    1,317 Posts.

    Junior Oilers 8 Dec

    Pretty ordinary week for the junior oilers with only DLS and PSA breaking out of their recent trading ranges. Biggest falls were recorded by CVN, PCL. FAR and PPP. By the end of the week most other stocks were pretty much back were they started the week. Volumes were unspectacular and on a par with recent weeks. The stocks involved in the upcoming Perth Basin drilling, ARQ,AWE, NWE, BUY, ROC,HDR and VOY were all steady or down with the exception of VOY which ticked up a little. Can’t be long now before some excitement builds in some of these stocks.

    Oil ended the week a little stronger and gas continued to trade above $US4.00. Situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate. Saddam Hussein’s 10,000 page denial of the possession of WMD will be the focus of international attention next week. Look for a re-emergence of war rhetoric. Strengthening gold price could see some rotation out of the oilers though not if the situation in the Middle East leads to a similar strengthening in oil prices.

    Individual Stocks

    PPP dropped from 13 cents to 11.5 cents this week on the announcement of the failure of Immortelle. Rig now moves on to Taunton 2 in which PPP has a larger interest (10%) . Rig will drill Montgomery in WA 149P after that. With Argos, Ceres and now Immortelle all dusters, current round of drilling in the Carnarvon basin is not looking too flash. ( Remember Yogi’s prophetic comments on shallow drilling in the Carnarvon Basin to meet lease requirements!). PPP could be a buy after Taunton 2 results are in particularly if, as the odds would suggest, it is another duster. Remember Tui is just around the corner. We should know Taunton 2 result early in the coming week.

    Two media presentations by AWE and HDR gave a temporary fillip to their share prices but both had retraced post announcement gains by weeks end. AWE found it difficult to stay above 90 cents and HDR remains in the trading range 50- 57 cents. Perth Basin drilling is likely to do more for AWE than HDR. I would expect the latter’s share price to drift lower now that Ted (CEO) has told all and next drilling off Mauritania is months away. ASIC investigation into the trading of the stock might not be good for it either. Jingemia should now be in production testing mode. This was a good find for both companies

    AYO announced the drilling of Gocerler 4 by end of December but also the postponement of Cayidere to next year due to land access problems. Not sure where AYO will go. Market may be concerned by announcement this week that Turkey had agreed to be a base for US forces in the event of an attack on Iraq. At these undervalued levels AYO might be a good stock to buy and put away in the bottom drawer. In my opinion it will drift sideways for a while unless there is a sudden upsurge in gas sales or another discovery at Gocerler. Yogi however sees a rise to test 70 cents so it is a stock to watch for any signs of strengthening.

    Market was not impressed with Carnarvon’s media release this week on flows from new (and old ) wells and marked the stock down accordingly. It is not a bad result for the Wichian Buri JV partners though I would have preferred combined production rates above 1,000 bopd than below. 700 bopd will not make CVN but will not break it either. Can’t see much interest returning to CVN until Phase 3 drilling gets under way next year. JV now has to build up some cash reserves from current production and bed down the current wells.

    To be continued

DISCLAIMER:
Before making any financial decisions based on what you read, always consult an advisor or expert.

The HotCopper website is operated by Report Card Pty Ltd. Any information posted on the website has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and as such, you should before acting on the information or advice, consider the appropriateness of the information or advice in relation to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please be aware that any information posted on this site should not be considered to be financial product advice.

From time to time comments aimed at manipulating other investors may appear on these forums. Posters may post overly optimistic or pessimistic comments on particular stocks, in an attempt to influence other investors. It is not possible for management to moderate all posts so some misleading and inaccurate posts may still appear on these forums. If you do have serious concerns with a post or posts you should report a Terms of Use Violation (TOU) on the link above. Unless specifically stated persons posting on this site are NOT investment advisors and do NOT hold the necessary licence, or have any formal training, to give investment advice.

Top

Thank you for visiting HotCopper

We have detected that you are running ad blocking software.


HotCopper relies on revenue generated from advertisers. Kindly disable your ad blocking software to return to the HotCopper website.

I understand, I have disabled my ad blocker. Let me in!

Need help? Click here for support.